Pakistan quest for stability-II

Fifth-generation warfare is built on three pillars: 1) data, 2) research and 3) media (traditional and non-traditional). Data and research documents are produced to prepare the ground for launch of FGW.

However, before the data collection and research, it creates circumstances that can help them secure a space for manipulation of facts to cultivate their followers, which act as the ground force. The FGW is not only use of media or social media, it is a war of narrative supported by data and research.

The international establishment launches FGW against any country by manipulating facts to achieve four specific objectives: it interferes in the electoral process to get favourite persons or parties selected; it demoralises the masses or common people by constantly blaming and spreading negativity about the country or institutions, criticising a nation for nothing, degrading the nation by assigning negative traits and creating fear of existence; it destabilises the institutions of vital importance; it creates anarchy or chaos by spreading manipulated information. The same strategy has been deployed against Pakistan.

The international establishment has played havoc with the economy of Pakistan. It deployed international financial institutions and FATF to deliver the objectives.

FATF came with allegations of money-laundering, terrorist financing, etc. when Pakistan was bleeding to save the peace of the world as a front-line ally in the war on terror. Analysis of FATF’s interventions in Pakistan during the last two decades reveals whenever Pakistan signed some major economic programme or was in the take-off position, FATF came into play.

For example, Pakistan-China signed the Energy Framework and Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in 2006. These were designed to help Pakistan boost its economy and energy sectors by mobilising investment. Simultaneously, after continuous high growth rate, Pakistan was preparing itself for a take-off position. It communicated to IMF it does not need any new programme. The situation was reversed after Pakistan was put on the FATF's grey list in 2008. Somehow, it managed to break the web of FATF and came out of grey list.

However, soon after China-Pakistan initial talks for further strengthening bilateral relations, Pakistan was again put on the grey list in 2012. Fortunately, it came out of the grey list in 2015, but the international establishment did not stop there.

It again started lobbying against Pakistan and successfully put Pakistan back on the grey list in 2018. It happened at a time when Pakistan was able to manage electricity supply, rehabilitating and building new transport infrastructure under the CPEC.

A deep dive into the allegations indicates FATF never supported charges with facts and data. Pakistan asked FATF if they had evidence, share it with them. Developed countries were also asked to share data.

The Western countries, however, unleashed media and think tanks campaigns to scare potential investors. They warned the companies over investing or doing trade with Pakistan. FATF hindered investment flow to Pakistan by creating fear among potential investors and trade partners.

It introduced two types of problems: lack of investment in the energy, industry and infrastructure sectors and low foreign earnings. Lack of investment resulted in load-shedding and deterioration of infrastructure and industry. The low foreign reserve earnings led to depletion of foreign reserves at a faster rate. Pakistan was left with no choice except to borrow money from international financial institutions and the Western private sector. The argument can be strengthened by a steep increase in borrowing after 2008. The process of higher borrowing started just 4-5 years after a message to the IMF that Pakistan does not need a new programme.

IMF found it a good opportunity to further its agenda and started dictating Pakistan to follow its instructions.

The Fund compelled Pakistan to surrender its economic autonomy by giving up control over the State Bank of Pakistan.

It compelled Pakistan to follow market mechanisms for exchange rate management. It gave birth to a speculative market. Pakistan’s currency lost value very sharply, and our resources depleted at an accelerated pace.

From the above discussion, two conclusions can be drawn. First, FATF slowly poisoned the Pakistani economy.

Since 2008, FATF has systematically damaged Pakistani reputation and discouraged investment in Pakistan and trade partnerships. It ultimately resulted in an economic and financial crisis. Second, the IMF made a new entry, further complicating the situation for Pakistan. Now, Pakistan is facing worst inflation and economic and financial crisis.

It is pertinent to highlight here FATF and IMF were successful due to bad governance, incompetent economic teams, blindly following a liberal economic model and a selfish ruling elite. The story did not stop there, and the international establishment started demoralising the nation by spreading fake news. They term Pakistan as a falling state, etc. They maligned Pakistan with allegations of terror financing, etc. without giving any heed to the sacrifices of our country.

After depletion of foreign reserves and high borrowing due to FATF and IMF policies, they tried to create a wedge between Pakistan and China by blaming CPEC.

It is trying to create a divide in the society by using political, ethnic or class differences.

It is working to create mistrust and enmity between the people of Pakistan and its institutions. For that purpose, they are maligning economy, governance and security institutions.

The international establishment knows Pakistan is situated in a fragile region and security institutions are protecting stability and interests of Pakistan. Thus, by making security institutions weak, it would be easier to create anarchy and stability problems in Pakistan.

Unfortunately, the ruling elite does not understand the situation, or does not want to. Instead of solving the problems, it is politicising everything. It is a disturbing fact the ruling elite of Pakistan is a master in politicising everything, but lacks the political wisdom to solve the problems. The 2024 election is a classic example of understanding the dynamics.

In conclusion, the ruling elite must tackle the situation with wisdom, not arrogance or self-interest. Let the politicians run the system.

The establishment should confine its role to assisting the government and stop entertaining individuals. Rest assured, a hybrid system will not work. It would create chaos and anarchy as the saying goes: “too many cooks spoil the broth.” It is the desired outcome of the international establishment.