A study conducted by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) unveiled that asteroid 2024 YRF has a 4% possibility of colliding with the moon in December 2032.
The study proposed that although the asteroid is not a threat to Earth, a lunar impact might have serious implications for space infrastructure.
Scientists also reveal that the moon is not the most significant issue but the debris cloud that the collision will leave will have a bigger impact behind.
Scientists have estimated that such an event may cause a 1000-fold increase explosion in the number of micrometeorites striking Earth-orbiting satellites and space stations over several days, potentially posing a severe threat to essential resources in orbit.
The study has not yet been peer-reviewed, but it provides two primary alternatives in case an asteroid is confirmed to be on a collision path. The proposed solution is deflection or destruction.
Although it is preferable to push the asteroid out of its path, the researchers note that one of the biggest challenges is the absence of information on the weight of 2024 YR4.
Its weight may change dramatically, and a specific deflection mission may be dangerous.
When computation is done incorrectly, trying to propel it away will result in it flying in the wrong direction towards planet Earth.
With a limited timeline and the uncertainty, the scientists claim that a reconnaissance mission to investigate the asteroid cannot be conducted.
In their place, they offer a more violent solution i.e., destruction. The research comes to the conclusion that the surest way is a “kinetic robust disruption” which may mean the usage of nuclear bombs to fracture the 60-meter-wide asteroid into harmless pieces.
The staff estimated that the launch of a mission with nuclear hardware was possible between the end of 2029 and 2031.
Although it is politically sensitive and untested to deflect asteroids, its physics validates it as a last resort, which is a viable option.
In the meantime, the probability of impact is 4% and more information in 2028 will be used to narrow the risk. The paper, however, emphasizes that planning must begin now in order to have the ability to do something.
