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| Drone attacks can put Zardari’s govt at risk: experts |
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Wednesday, January 28, 2009
By Aamir Ghauri
LONDON: Elite Western defence experts believe that the US-led military intervention is faltering in Afghanistan and can collapse unless a robust diplomatic strategy, involving tribal outreach and a more coordinated international approach, is adopted.
They also warned that the continuing US strikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas could undermine the position of President Asif Zardari vis-a-vis the Army.Launching the Military Balance ñ an annual assessment of global military capabilities and defence economics of 170 states — here on Tuesday at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a group of American, Russian, British and Indian experts overtly aligned themselves to the emerging foreign policy pattern in Washington DC.
The Obama administration’s quick decision to deal with the Middle East and Afghanistan and Pakistan through enhanced diplomacy backed by assured action seems to have provided the Western analysts a chance to rewrite their evaluations ñ more or less in line with Washington’s new mindset.
The survey said that with the global economic crisis still unfolding Nato members would find it hard to commit more troops or resources to open-ended conflicts like Afghanistan, especially at a time when the US is increasing its commitment in Afghanistan. There is already a division among Nato allies as to what would be a “success” in that country, the report said and noted that the Taliban insurgency had continued unabated throughout the past 12 months and has even forced the Western forces to adapt to changes in Taliban tactics without making much headway.
“Without more positive developments and a more unified approach to the conflict, it seemed likely that some countries with troops deployed as part of the International Security Assistance Force (Isaf) mission under the Nato command might begin to reappraise their commitments. Tensions within Nato over mission objectives have undermined the mission’s effectiveness and a broader debate is under way over how the international community should define ‘success’ in Afghanistan.”
The report went as far as saying that the Western alliance lacks a clear strategy for the country and suggested that the allies improve their efforts to define a common understanding of their objectives in Afghanistan, given that the absence of any clear strategic success threatens the long-term sustainability of the Nato mission.
The report’s chapter on Afghanistan could be termed as a damning appreciation of Nato/Isaf performance in a campaign that is almost eight years old now. It said the Taliban were operating relatively freely despite the much-publicised military successes claimed by Nato.
“After suffering a series of defeats in open combat with international forces in the heartland areas of Helmand, Kandahar and Uruzgan, insurgents established bases in areas where the government and Isaf forces were fewer in number, such as Nimruz, Farah, while becoming more active in the north, especially in Badghis, Faryab, Faizabad and Badakhshan.”
The report suggested that attempts to turn fighters away from the Taliban must meet a greater success if the international mission in Afghanistan was to succeed. “So too did some form of dialogue with the Taliban”.
The survey also warned that continuing US strikes against alleged Taliban and al-Qaeda targets in the Pakistan’s tribal areas could undermine the position of President Asif Zardari. “To effectively pursue the campaign on terror, he will need to balance growing US pressure for military strikes in the tribal areas with the Pakistani Army’s decreasing tolerance for such attacks,” the report said.
“He will have to ensure that the ensuing domestic political turbulence, heightened by the growing economic crisis, does not place his own government at risk from the Army.”Replying to a question by this scribe as to how assured the world should feel against the threat of terrorism when the US-led international military effort remains unsuccessful to find and eliminate ‘Al-Qaeda Central’ ñ bin Laden and al-Zawahiri — Christopher Langton, senior fellow for armed conflict and defence diplomacy at the IISS, admitted that the threat of further terror attacks remained though weakened to a large extent.
Though the survey compiled data on 170 countries, most of the Q&A remained locked with queries about South Asia with many questions on India and Pakistan in the wake of the Mumbai attacks in September last year.
Noting that despite keeping ‘all options open’ India has focused on mounting international diplomatic campaign to put pressure on Pakistan to take action against militant outfit like Lashkar-e-Taiba or its front organisation Jamaatud-Daawa, the panel, nonetheless, feared that electoral politics could force the Indian government to ratchet up the pressure on Pakistan.
“There remains a risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation between the two nuclear-armed nations, especially at a time when mutual trust is in such short supply.” They also expressed their “worry” that the Pakistan Army could still move its troops away from the much-desired counterterrorism effort on the Pak-Afghan border to its eastern border with India if the situation did not calm down.
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ISSN 1563-9479 
