Scorecard

It has been 139 days since Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif won the support of a majority in parliament and took oath as the 23rd prime minister of Pakistan. On April 11, the day parliament elected a new prime minister, Pakistan was on the verge of a disastrous sovereign default. On April 11, the day Shehbaz Sharif took oath of the prime ministerial office, the IMF, the lender of last resort, was not willing to take Pakistan back into its fold.

On April 11, net foreign exchange reserves with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) stood at $10.8 billion, barely enough to cover six weeks of imports. In April, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), reported a year-on-year price increase of 13.4 per cent.

Over the past 139 days, the government has managed to dodge a potentially disastrous sovereign default. In June, the FATF “made the initial determination that Pakistan has substantially completed its two action plans, covering 34 items, and warrants an on-site visit….” On June 22, Pakistan signed a $2.3 billion loan facility agreement with China. On June 27, Pakistan got a $3.68 billion debt relief from G-20 countries. The UAE has agreed to invest $1 billion into government-owned listed companies (this is an ‘investment’ not a ‘loan’). Pakistan will get $2 billion from Qatar and a couple of billion dollars from Saudi Arabia.

Getting back into the IMF’s fold was tough because the previous government had become a habitual violator of its agreements with the IMF. The PTI government would sign an agreement with the IMF, receive a billion dollar tranche and then go back on its agreement. And, this happened twice in the past two years.

On July 1, the FBR reported that it had collected Rs6,125 billion exceeding its target. On August 11, a delegation of Japanese investors met PM Shehbaz Sharif and expressed interest in investing $1 billion. On August 12, Pakistan and Türkiye signed a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA). On August 20, the Ministry of Commerce unveiled the National Priority Sectors Export Strategy (NPSES).

Now the other side of the coin. Over the past 139 days, the SBP’s reserves have fallen from $10.8 billion in April to $7.8 billion. Over the past 139 days, the government has been losing an average of $20 million a day. Not good at all. Over the past 139 days, the rate of inflation has gone up from 13.4 per cent to a whopping 24.9 per cent. That’s deplorable. These, in effect, are the two major failures-reserves going down and the rate of inflation going through the roof.

Over the past 139 days, PM Shehbaz Sharif’s government has saved Pakistan from a potentially disastrous default. Over the past 139 days, PM Shehbaz Sharif has sacrificed his personal political capital to safeguard national interest. Over the past 139 days, PM Shehbaz Sharif’s government has failed to raise the SBP’s reserves. And the biggest failure has been on the inflation front.

The PTI government had failed on three counts: the economy, governance and foreign relations. The economy is better off now than it was 139 days ago. And Pakistan’s relations with the outside world have seen a visible improvement just over the past 139 days.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. He tweets @saleemfarrukh and can be reached at: farrukh15@hotmail.com