Value of a currency

2008-2013: On February 18, 2008, the PPP led by Asif Ali Zardari won 116 seats in the National Assembly. On March 25, Yousaf Raza Gilani took the oath of office as the 18th prime minister of Pakistan. Over the five-year period, the Pakistani rupee lost 20 percent of its value against the US dollar.

2013-2018: On May 11, 2013, the PML-N led by Mian Nawaz Sharif won 166 seats in the National Assembly. On June 5, Mian Nawaz Sharif took the oath of office as the 20th prime minister of Pakistan. Over the five-year period, the Pakistani rupee lost an additional 26 percent of its value against the US dollar.

2018-2021: On July 25, 2018, the PTI led by Imran Khan won 149 seats in the National Assembly. On August 18, Imran Khan took the oath of office as the 22nd prime minister of Pakistan. Over the past 37 months, the Pakistani rupee has lost 36 percent of its value against the US dollar.

To be certain, the change in the value of a country’s currency is one of the key indicators of the changes in the economic situation of that country. At the very basic level, “value of a currency indicates its demand in the global market”. If businesses outside of Pakistan become interested in establishing businesses in Pakistan they create a demand for the Pakistani rupee. Conclusion: the Pakistani rupee losing its value in the global market means businesses outside of Pakistan are not interested in establishing businesses in Pakistan.

Question: Is the Pakistani economy developing more effectively compared to other economies? Answer: The change in the value of the Pakistani rupee has the answer. If the Pakistani rupee is losing its value in the global market then it means that other economies are developing more effectively than is the Pakistani economy.

Question: Is Pakistan’s ‘production potential’ growing or shrinking relative to other economies? Answer: The change in the value of the Pakistani rupee has the answer. If the Pakistani rupee is losing its value in the global market then it means that the ‘production potential’ of other economies is growing faster than Pakistan’s.

Question: Is the Pakistani economy gaining an advantage over other economies? Answer: The change in the value of the Pakistani rupee has the answer. If the Pakistani rupee is losing its value in the global market then it means that other economies are gaining advantage over the Pakistani economy.

Question: How is Pakistan’s rate of adoption of new technology compared to others? Answer: The change in the value of the Pakistani rupee has the answer. If the Pakistani rupee is losing its value in the global market then it means that the rate of adoption of new technology is faster outside of Pakistan.

Question: Is Pakistan’s ‘financial capital’ growing or shrinking relative to other economies? Answer: The change in the value of the Pakistani rupee has the answer. If the Pakistani rupee is losing its value in the global market then it means that Pakistan’s ‘financial capital’ relative to other economies is shrinking.

Fact 1: Pakistan’s share of global exports has come down from 0.18 percent in 1990 to 0.11 percent. Fact 2: Bangladesh’s share of global exports has gone up from 0.06 percent to 0.19 percent. Fact 3: India’s share of global exports has gone up from 0.61 percent to 1.65 percent.

Fact 4: Between 1947 and 1980, Pakistan’s GDP grew faster than both India and Bangladesh. That simply means that Pakistan has the potential – if we were ahead for 33 years the same can be done again. To be sure, Pakistan’s potential is being underutilised by our leadership.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.

Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh