Company versus country?

A few catchy numbers on Pakistan’s economic trends have recently been bandied about by the country’s rulers as evidence of a turnaround, as Pakistan like the rest of the world remains locked in the fallout from the Covid pandemic.

Matters like the improving current account or the recent strengthening of the rupee against the US dollar have given fuel to such claims. While these numbers are not completely without relevance, they smack of a half truth at best. Like other half truths, the official ones are meant to fuel optimism and possibly even ignorance of an overall reality.

This is not the first time that a ruling structure in Islamabad has sought to boost the ‘sub acha’ or 'all is well' narrative. There is a history of government after government in Islamabad playing up a sugar-coated message, built selectively on parameters of their own choice. In another sense, the official line has sought to prove that the proverbial glass is half full and heading upwards, rather than half empty and possibly heading downwards.

Part of the problem in understanding any country’s economy comes from a determination to look at the national economic performance as that of a company. Notwithstanding the vast difference between the two, the few ‘positive’ trends here or there often drive the official view of the national economy’s performance.

Unlike a company, a country must be seen through a comprehensive economic prism involving its structure of governance and other parameters at the centre of overall stability. For instance, a company has the freedom to shut down one of its branches in the wake of recurring losses, unlike a state which must fund many of its functions irrespective of their performance on a balance sheet. Areas like state-provided education or healthcare stand at the heart of a state’s responsibility towards its people, irrespective of the loss or profit margin.

In the case of Pakistan, successive governments have continued to fund a large public sector saddled with recurring huge losses that were incurred year after year, at the cost of dangerously growing national indebtedness. In the process, many government-owned companies have run in mounting losses year after year, without the necessary corrective action. In brief, some of these choices have been made on the back of larger interests – notably the fear of a real or imaginary popular backlash.

Tragically for Pakistan, Prime Minister Imran Khan’s maiden entry to Islamabad in 2018 triggered expectations of an unprecedented resolve to begin tackling afresh the multiple challenges plaguing the economy. But more than two years later, the government has little to show for its track record on breaking new ground. In fact, the official track record is more of the same.

And while some may give space to the government as it faces the Covid-19 crisis, there must be a limit to the amount of space that is given, notably in the face of a recurring failure to perform. This is especially the case across Punjab, the largest province with a population and geographical size larger than many countries around the world.

Known to many across Pakistan as the country’s proverbial heartland, there is ample evidence of the provincial government’s dismal performance all around. The quality of governance across Punjab today is not much to write home about. In the face of recurring and constant criticism of Punjab CM Usman Buzdar, the prime minister continues to back him as his choicest candidate in Lahore. The bottom line is cut straight – either the performance of the ruling structure across Punjab improves radically or the prime minister must bring in a new team to do the job.

Across Punjab, the neglect of the all-too-vital agriculture sector has given added ammunition to the government’s critics by comparison to the time of its entry in 2018. And its hardly surprising that stagnation in this key sector has exposed Pakistan to a crisis of food insecurity. More aptly put, it is a crisis that has deepened the challenge of tackling hunger across Pakistan.

Without remedial measures put in place soon, the prime minister faces the prospect of large-scale loss of his political fortunes. And Khan cannot take the luxury of time for granted.

The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist who writes on political and economic affairs.

Email: farhanbokhari@gmail.com