Indian Ocean: Augmenting hope for stability and economic prosperity

A population of around 2.5 billion, projected to pile up another 689 million by 2030 shares the Indian Ocean, the third largest body of water on planet earth. The 36 littoral states dotting the map of this region have a combined coastline that constitutes almost 40 percent of the world’s total coastline. The region represents nearly 36 percent of global population and is perhaps the most diverse as well as disunited. In 2011, of the total 388 political conflicts worldwide, 142 conflicts including 12 of the world’s 20 wars and additional eight limited wars were recorded in the Indian Ocean region. Paradoxically, the region has seen an unprecedented aching for co-operation and coming together in recent years.
On the shores of the Indian Ocean is a large concentration of energy rich littorals and developing economies. There is insatiable hunger for fossil fuels involving both, regional as well as external stakeholders. But there is an increasing urbanisation on the shores as well. Once combined with the environmental degradation, a rapidly depleting reservoir of marine resources, climatic changes setting off cyclones and tsunamis, and concerns over safety of sea lines, these challenges underpin the intense yearning for unification.
For now however, the alliances and geo-politics in the region are experiencing unprecedented changes. As the strife torn Middle East unravels, the P5+1 nuclear agreement with Iran concurrently brings in its wake a set of economic opportunities and renewed hopes for co-operation. Iran’s unique geographical position with respect to Eurasia and Indian Ocean provides it strategic advantage.
Following decades of isolation, Iran’s huge reservoir of natural resources is now up for grabs. EU, the West and Asian markets will vie for larger shares. The addition of nearly one million barrels of Iranian oil in the international market will undercut the oil prices that have already seen some extraordinary slump in recent months. With a rising Asian market including Eurasian continent just next door and given Iran’s past experience with the west, it will be logical for Iran to position itself with the east.
Coming on the heels of such changes is the multibillion dollar China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), part of China’s ‘One Belt’, One Road’ concept, a mammoth enterprise that aims to connect Asia with other regions. With Gwadar as its fulcrum, CPEC holds tremendous promise of economic dividends, not just for the two countries but the regions at large. This includes Central Asian States, Far East, Africa, Middle East and even Europe.
Located on Pakistan’s Makran coast close to the international energy gateway, the Strait of Hormuz, a functional port at Gwadar with all allied facilities including industrial and processing zones, could easily become a springboard for inter and intra-regional economic boon. It will simultaneously provide overseas investors favourable openings and uplift the region’s underdeveloped territories.
Iran has already agreed to consider becoming part of CPEC. This is a healthy development. It is also a demonstration of Iran’s desire to expand connectivity with regional countries. China too understands well that like Pakistan, Tehran’s geographic location renders it as perfect strategic partner in developing network of overland infrastructure that cannot be blocked by the US navy, as might be the case with the Strait of Malacca.
India is meanwhile engaged in realigning its policy with Iran. Besides agreement to enhance bilateral trade from $15 billion to $ 30 billion, Modi government has pledged nearly $85 million in the development of Iran’s port at Chabahar. There are plans to increase maritime co-operation as well. Iran has accordingly joined a 2008 initiative of the Indian navy, the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS). It is a voluntary initiative that seeks to increase maritime co-operation among navies of the littoral states of the Indian Ocean. As of now, there are 35 member navies in IONS grouped under South and West Asian littorals, East Africa, South East Asia and Australian littorals. Pakistan navy is a member of IONS in the South Asian grouping.
As a sitting member, Pakistan Navy is hosting IONS workshop at Karachi. In the two-day workshop, the participants from member navies will engage in dialogue on pre-selected themes. They will exhaustively examine and strive to find solutions to the contemporary maritime security issues that burden the region. A small step though, such dialogue and forum could eventually translate into a giant leap towards co-operation.
In an effort to expand regional maritime security through collaboration, Pakistan Navy has too launched several major initiatives over the past decade. The International Maritime Conference (IMC) held biennially at Karachi calls for overseas scholars and maritime experts to develop shared understanding on security challenges in the Indian Ocean region. It further aims at finding ways to address issues through multilateral engagement.
In the pristine mega complex of the Pakistan Navy War College, Lahore the inaugural session of the first International Maritime Symposium (IMS) was held last year. The symposium drew maritime experts from China, Saudi Arabia, over and above several others from within Pakistan. The Pakistan Navy War College complex at Lahore was inaugurated by the Prime Minister of Pakistan Mian Mohammad Nawaz Sharif in October 2014. As the principal seat of learning in Pakistan Navy, the college coaches middle tier officers of Pakistan Navy as well as numerous other friendly countries. The institute’s presence in the Punjab metropolis is meant to develop an inclusive understanding on the ocean and its importance for the country’s economic prosperity in the 21st century. This becomes even more significant with CPEC now lifting off the ground. Pakistan’s maritime interests will expand enormously once CPEC is commissioned and commercial activity in the western Indian Ocean as well as adjoining region widens. Pakistan Navy is the ultimate sentinel of the nation’s extensive and diverse maritime interests.
Regardless, co-operation will remain elusive, not only in the Indian Ocean region but South Asia as well if certain countries continued with their usual saber rattling. Instead of being pragmatic and acknowledging that wars offer no solution to the myriad problems afflicting the region, the Indian politico-military leadership is displaying belligerence. It has upped the ante and continues hurling threats of imposing ‘limited war’ on Pakistan.
Since coming to power, Modi government has steadily created war hype; escalated tension along the LoC in Kashmir, and alongside multiplied activities of RAW inside Pakistan. The aim is to create chaos; keep Pakistan embroiled in internal security and subvert CPEC. Pakistan has enough evidence of RAW’s unmistakable footprints in fomenting insurgency in Balochistan, KP and Karachi. New Delhi is also wielding an undesirable influence over the Indian Ocean Islands but side-by-side hopes for co-operation. There is no gainsaying that the double-dealing cannot and will not work.
The current Indian foreign policy of intimidation, bullying and disrupting Pakistan’s gains in the fight against terror will not hold the region in good stead. This would instead; keep the region in turmoil and hostage to previously failed policy of subjugation.
It was in the backdrop of such ominous developments and brandishing of the threat of a ‘limited war’ by BJP government that Islamabad was compelled to reaffirm its resolve on national security. “Pakistan is ready for both, cold start or hot start”, said the army Chief General Raheel Sharif in his recent defence day speech. Later during the week, a press release issued at the conclusion of a meeting of the National Command Authority convened in Islamabad took care of doubts, if there were any. “The state remains fully cognizant of the evolving security dynamics of South Asia and will take measures to safeguard its national security”, said the statement, adding that, “the NCA resolved to maintain “full spectrum deterrence”.
The message emanating from Pakistan’s apex policy-making body is loud and clear. Unfortunately, despite being the sitting PM, Modi has failed to unshackle himself or rise beyond the small-minded local politics of Gujrat. Little does he realise that Pakistan is not Gujrat where Modi and his aides stoked communal violence and Lorded over cold-blooded massacre of tens of hundreds of innocent Muslims. In Modi’s current camp there appears to be little, if not poor understanding on foreign relations and political brinkmanship. Still, should India desire there would be a nuclear war in the region? But let us not forget that in a nuclear exchange there will remain no winners.
The writer is a Research fellow at the Pakistan Navy War College, Lahore.