Flood threat

After another set of flash floods hit Chitral on Saturday, the threat of a serious flood in Punjab and Sindh is now severe. With nine more people dead on the same day, the Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) has reported that River Indus is now at high or very high flood from the Guddu Barrage onwards. With the water from hill torrents joining in after rains in south-western Punjab, the Indus will be flowing at between 650,000 and 750,000 cusecs for about seven days. Low-lying areas along the Indus in both Punjab and Sindh have already been hit by flooding. These include the districts of Multan, Bhakkar, Layyah, Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur, Dera Ghazi Khan, Rahimyar Khan, Ghotki, Kashmore, Shikarpur, Sukkur, Khairpur and Larkana. While the warning is not early, it is certainly early enough for precautionary measures to be taken to avoid the loss of life and damage to people’s property. Irrigation officials are reportedly patrolling embankments around the clock, but there is still little information on where they would look to make the breaches if the water levels get too high. With more rain expected across the country over the next two weeks, the threat of a serious flood like 2010 and 2011 is very real. As two sets of heavy rainfall are expected in the north, we must expect another set of floods in both the northern areas and the south.
The current monsoon system is predicted to fade away in two weeks, but the misery that follows could leave damage much beyond the rainy spell. The hill torrent flow in Dera Ghazi Khan is likely to also increase flow in the Jhelum and Chenab rivers. Already over half a million people have been affected by this year’s – and at least 109 people have already been lost. The fatality count is highest in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa – 52 dead – but Punjab, Balochistan and Gilgit-Baltistan have also suffered. In Punjab, 21 people have died due to the floods, while 397 villages have suffered damage. The fears of disease outbreaks in areas already affected by the flooding are another cause for concern. Questions have been raised over data collected by the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), which is yet to possess segregated data on various groups of affectees, including women and children. Simple information relay systems do not also seem to be in place. On Saturday, the NDMA issued a fresh glacial lake overflow flood (GLOF) warning. Talk has started amongst government offices that Pakistan must now embrace yearly flooding. What that means is being more prepared, not less, as appears to be the case year after year. Flood warning systems need to be in place, but the infrastructure put in place to prevent floods also needs to be examined.