Hybrid warfare

Pakistan is under attack – a hybrid attack. Hybrid warfare is the “synchronised use of multiple instruments of power tailored to specific vulnerabilities across the full spectrum of societal functions to achieve synergistic effects”.

Our adversaries have designed a synchronised attack package (SAP). This utilises economic, political, sectarian, military and informational attack tools. SAPs involve the “tailored targeting” of our perceived or real national vulnerabilities (vulnerabilities can be “personnel, activities, resources or processes”). SAPs are designed to remain “below certain detection” and below our “response threshold”. We must, therefore, move beyond traditional threat analysis.

We need to understand both the enemy’s capabilities and our own vulnerabilities. The goal of the synchronised attack package is to cripple our critical societal functions. I see at least three national vulnerabilities –economic, political and sectarian – that our enemy is bent upon exploiting.

To be certain, our economy has been hit by ‘economic hit-men’. Pakistan’s debt and liabilities have gone from Rs6,000 billion in 2008 to Rs30,000 billion. Pakistan’s current account deficit has gone from $3.1 billion in 2013 to $18 billion. To be sure, lending instruments are ‘weaponised’ tools within the synchronised attack package used for both “compensation and coercion” (case study: Russia’s use of lending instruments against a heavily indebted Ukraine).

Yes, our political arena has become a potential vulnerability for our adversaries to exploit. The goal of the synchronised attack package is to undermine “critical societal functions” by using political actors. We need to “understand, detect and then respond” to the political dimension within the synchronised attack package’ (case study: our polarised political minefield).

Yes, the sectarian divide within our society has over time become our vulnerability for our adversaries to exploit to their benefit. For the record, major sects in Pakistan have lived peacefully for several decades. For the record, the sectarian divide as a vulnerability is around two decades old. We need to “deter, mitigate and counter” the sectarian tool being used against us in the synchronised attack package (case study: the recent dharna in Lahore).

Pakistan is under attack and this hybrid warfare is being fought in the digital age. The synchronised attack package relies heavily on the “speed, volume and ubiquity of digital technology”. I read somewhere that “war is still a contest of wills, but technology is changing its character”.

Remember, our adversaries are bent upon manipulating the synchronised attack package along vertical as well as horizontal axes. Remember, there are no smoking guns in hybrid warfare. Remember, our adversaries are bent upon converting a ‘normal’ economic, political or sectarian state of affairs within Pakistan into a crisis situation – and then to a state of emergency.

Yes, hybrid warfare is an institutional challenge. Yes, the target is the Pakistani population. Yes, we need to develop a “set of tools to deter and defend against adversaries waging hybrid warfare”.

Eyes wide shut. We need to identify our adversary’s capabilities. We need to assess our non-military vulnerabilities. We need to map out our entire spectrum of societal functions. And we need to deter, mitigate and counter. Plus, we need to establish a real-time monitoring mechanism. The economic, political and sectarian dimensions of the synchronised attack package must be monitored and updated in real time categorised as ‘normal, crisis or emergency’ (case studies: the twin terror attacks on the Chinese consulate and Hangu).

The writer is the government’s spokesperson on economy and energy issues.

Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh