The secret of MQM’s success

The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) won the NA-246 by-election securing 95,00 votes despite its tense relations with the Establishment, a hostile campaign by a section of the media and facing tough political rivals — the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Jamaat-e-Islami. So, what is the secret of its success even in an election considered as “free and fair” despite pre-poll reservations by its rivals?
The PTI, a rising political force, has certainly awakened the MQM to an extent that has reminded me of its campaign in 1988 when for the first time it won the general elections.
The PTI candidate, Imran Ismail, showed grace by accepting the results and congratulating the MQM candidate Kunwar Naveed. What happened in Karimabad after the polling did not go well with the MQM image.
One factor which always differentiates the MQM from other political forces in Karachi is the “Karachi factor” or the ethnic dynamics of politics. It is perhaps the only party, which despite its weaknesses and serious allegations owns the city.
The PPP had this opportunity in the 70s and even afterwards, but as one senior foreign diplomat recently told this reporter, “it seems the Sindh government is not interested in Karachi but in its land.”
Even if we go by the allegations of 25,000 fake votes, which is the responsibility of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to look into, the MQM candidate still got 75,000 votes which are around 50,000 more than the votes bagged pulled by the PTI and JI.
The alleged militancy factor, charges of extortion and at times use of mussel power did damage the party’s image and also affected its vote bank, but at the same time its voters still fee “secured” by backing it in the absence of a better alternative, who could address their grievances.
This is also gave an opportunity to the MQM leadership to learn few lessons from this election. It is also an opportunity for the powerful urban based party to review some of the weakness before the next local bodies elections and general elections.
Now, if the next general elections are held after 2016 census, the first since 1998, Karachi’s political dynamics would be different and there could be major increase in the number of seats and that too after delimitation of constituencies and under fresh voter’s lists.
This may also give time to parties like the PTI, JI and even the PPP to prepare themselves and address their grievances.But, the Karachi factor may continue to dominate the politics of this economic hub and whichever party comes out with better solution would gain.
Another secret behind the MQM success is its organisational capability and making its headquarters Nine-Zero fully functional round the clock. There is no party in the country whose headquarters remained so active as that of the MQM. The JI is the next, which has a strong base in Mansoora or local headquarters.
Thirdly, despite hard times, the MQM top leaders remained in touch with their constituents or workers. Till recently, its senators, MNAs and MPAs were supposed to give time and sit at the headquarters and also go to their constituencies on a weekly basis. One of the main reasons why Nabil Gabol quit the MQM was not merely his differences with some leaders, but also his reluctance to sit at Nine-Zero or visit his constituency NA-246.
Fourthly, the MQM chief Altaf Hussain keeps contacts with the party cadre including the general workers and that is one of the reasons why “minus-Altaf” formula was never accepted by the party under the workers’ pressure.
Thus the MQM on Thursday silenced its critics by retaining its seat for the 10th time, leaving many questions unanswered about its main political rival, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Jamaat-e-Islami, who despite very aggressive campaign could not even come close to the winning candidate.
Though the problems for MQM may not be over with this result nor will there be a “review” in the operation against the alleged militant wings of different parties, including the MQM, the outcome of NA-246 is certainly a moral booster for its workers.
However, none of the three parties managed to bring out the “silent voters” as reflected from the turnout, which remained 36.4 per cent. Even in the last election some 150,000 voters stayed back. Who are those voters and why they disassociated themselves from the electoral politics needs to be addressed.
If out of over 3,50,000 votes some 100,000 did not cast their vote not only in this election, but were also not voting for the past few elections, it’s an “eye opener” for all the parties. Who are those voters and why they always stayed back?
Yet, the success rate of the MQM is impressive, particularly in this by-election. There was alleged “targeted action” against them and all major parties targeted them during the election campaign.
The PTI emerged as the second party and left the JI far behind in the elections, but its failure includes (1) poor organization and internal differences, (2) failure to assess this constituency and its political dynamics, (3) poor campaign and failure to reach the voters, (4) failure to exploit the Karachi factor and come out with a better alternative.
However, by not joining hands with the JI, the PTI managed to bring out its committed voters and attracted some 24,000 voters in this huge constituency. So, they have space available and can fill the vacuum left by some other mainstream parties. (2) The PTI did the right thing by not joining hands with the JI considering the dynamics of Karachi politics. If they had joined hands with the JI, they would never have been able to assess their own strength. (3) It has given them an opportunity to work for the local bodies and the next general elections.
For JI, there is lot to learn. Jamaat Amir Hafiz Naimuddin has not accepted the results and blamed pre-poll rigging. His main concern was about the alleged fake voter’s list. However, the problem which the Jamaat needs to be looked into is not how many votes the MQM had got but how much vote the JI got. The Jamaat once use to get some 33,000 votes (in 2002) but the score declined to nearly 10,000. The JI also has to look into whether there is need to change its overall politics or not. They also have to look whether their politics was badly damaged by the aggressive stance of former Amir Syed Munawar Hasan or due to the soft image of the present Amir Sirajul Haq.
There are also lessons for the two major parties, PML-N and the PPP. The PPP once used to win at least three NA seats and won eight MPAs seats in 1970. But, its failure to address the “Karachi factor” provided space to others. Even in the local bodies elections it often performed well but it always avoided local bodies polls. Thus, the PPP never took the ownership of this mega city.
The PML-N for decades tried to run Sindh through Islamabad and whenever it tried to form government in Sindh, it always did it in connivance with the Establishment whether in 1985, 1990, 1997 or in 2002.
The Awami National Party (ANP) is not ready to come out of its “pushtoon politics.” Thus, it failed in attracting the secular vote bank and filling the vacuum which parties like the MQM managed to fill.
So, what is the way forward” It’s simple and that is to let the democratic process flourish. It will enable the parties to reform and refine themselves. Zero tolerance for militancy and criminals would always be helpful, but there is also need to have tolerance and courage to accept the election results and change.
The writer is the senior analyst and columnist of GEO, The News and Jang.