Can US president replay North Korea peace option to reconcile with Iran?

Sitara-e-Shujat, Nashan-e-Imtiaz

Lately, we have witnessed some unfortunate hot exchanges between USA and North Korean leadership. Media has been predicting attack by USA on North Korea and it was being widely said that this attack from President Donald Trump is imminent after his own firm statement but later on he put the entire blame on President Obama after his meeting with Kim Jong-un. I think President Donald Trump deserves appreciation for his timely and wise move to meet President Kim Jong to normalise the situation by initiating good friendly start between the two countries.

The credit also goes to the leaderships of China & Japan for their facilitation in building this friendly bond. I feel that USA will continue the need of China & Japan to advance this newly created friendly bond.

I was on record stating that USA will never be able to attack North Korea come what may and eventually both will have to sit on negotiation table and it has come true. The reason as to why I said so was because I watched very closely the body language of South Korean leadership after the statement of Donald Trump and it was witnessed that they were worried upon the threat given to North Korea. I assessed that South Korea would not support the attack though, both South Korea & North Korea are known to be historical rivals. South Korea played wise cards with China to bring North Korea and USA on the table and played cool, as any such attack would have affected South Korea too. It was this reason that South Korea saved the day showing reluctance for the potential attack.

The backdoor diplomacy did work which resulted into a happy ending with concluding agreed statement as under:

Mr. Trump praised Mr. Kim as “talented.” ”Anybody that takes over a situation like he did at 26 years of age and is able to run it and run it tough — I don’t say it was nice, or I don’t say anything about it”, however Donald Trump stated “We had a really fantastic meeting. A lot of progress,” Trump said. “Really very positive. I think better than anybody could have expected. Top of the line. Really good.”

Donald Trump made a comparison of his agreement with North Korea with that of with Iran and said: “The agreement was so poorly negotiated that even if Iran fully complies, the regime can still be on the verge of a nuclear breakout in just a short period of time. The deal’s sunset provisions are totally unacceptable”.

Donald Trump imposed the sanctions on Iran as part of his geo-political strategy for Middle East. USA would have multiple political gains by imposing these sanctions on Iran.

Let us compare North Korea and Iran vis-a-vis relations with USA. The North Korean situation is different as South Korea despite being the rival had created friendly environment along with other regional stakeholders in the region and declined to take advantage of USA inimical statements. Whereas, the sanctions on Iran by USA have been fully supported by whole Middle East isolating Iran.

Apart from this, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in a defiant response to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's announcement of tough economic sanctions against Iran said Tehran does not accept and obviously Iran will continue to defy USA.

Most importantly, US’ regional allies, particularly Israel, Saudi Arabia and some other countries would not like USA to make any favourable concessions to Iran in present situation. USA as part of its geo-regional political strategy will refrain to have an open dialogue with Iran as it may annoy its strategic partners in the region.

The solution of this issue lies in reducing the wedge between Iran and Saudi Arabia and some other Gulf states. I as interior minister acted as mediator between Saudi Arabia and Iran in April 2011 fully with the blessings of President Zardari and paid a couple of fruitful and meaningful visits to Iran and Saudi Arabia which is a matter of record. I had a number of meetings with HRH King Abdullah and the then foreign minister of Saudi Arabia as well as with Iranian foreign minister Akbar Salehi including my counterpart Mustafa Muhammad Nijar and then president of Iran Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The world had witnessed how these waves of tension got withered away between Saudi Arabia and Iran by the back door efforts done by me after over three months of interactions. I had successfully established direct contact between Saudi Arabia and Iran averting the war between them eventually and I would like dedicate this success to HRH King Abdullah, then president of Iran and his foreign minister.

It was another factor that apparently looked as if the USA was not prepared to talk to Iran directly or indirectly but I had assessed on the basis of solid information that it was a false no-talk impression given to Saudi authorities as both USA and Iran were engaged in a secret dialogue through Switzerland by keeping it hidden from Saudi Arabia. Eventually the world witnessed this engagement resulting into a deal between USA & Iran through Switzerland, which was utter surprise for Saudi Arabia. I remember when I presented my observation before HRH that USA was not going to bomb Iran and USA-Iran might enter into a friendly deal but HRH was in a state of denial. He said that it has happened already so it may happen again, not very soon though but in the near future as USA always deals matters with multiple options.

The world diplomacy and hypocrisy continues to achieve certain economic and political goals. The situation is likely to deteriorate in Middle East whereas Iran is likely to continue its pressure its own way. It is unfortunate to note that Iran considers itself as a superior civilisation as compared to Arab civilisation and is not prepared to compromise with Saudi Arabia or other countries at the moment. This attitude will continue to dent the unity of Muslim Ummah. Iran-Qatar nexus also cannot be ignored as it can affect the peace of Middle East in future.

Moreover, the current Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is not Iran’s commander in chief, merely its chief executive and he can hardly take any decision. Even Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei makes decisions through a process of consensus building between Iran’s political and security elite but he has the final say in such matters. I had met the supreme leader during my mediation mission and found him as a leader of wisdom as his actions and thoughts suggest that he is a peace-loving leader who believes in resolving issues through dialogue. It is yet to be seen that how he would be handling the present crises emerging due to sanctions likely to bring isolation.

This is an open window of opportunity for Pakistan to mediate between Gulf states and Iran playing its role to resolve their issues directly approaching the Supreme Commander of Iran and pave the way for a joint meeting between Gulf states, Iran and the USA with the help of China. The role of modern China is based more on reconciliation strategy and not on war hence it would not deny this noble cause.

It is understood that USA would wait to have a similar peace summit with Iran like it did with North Korea but it could annoy its other partners and this status quo would likely to continue till the end of crises in Yemen and Syria.

Pakistan is in ideal situation to act as mediator once again in this growing deteriorating situation and should play decisive role to bring two Muslim brothers together.

Let us hope President Donald Trump plays his role not to support further wedge in Muslim world as United Muslim Ummah would be more helpful in promoting peace in the world and I advise President Donald Trump to follow the principles of interfaith.

The writer is Chairman of think tank "global eye" & former interior minister of Pakistan.

@Email: rmalik1212@gmail .com, Twitter @Senrehmanmalik, @GlobalEye_GSA, WhatsApp +923325559393