Can Shahbaz revive PML-N troika?

Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) veteran Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, once the third member of the Sharif troika, is facing a possible expulsion from the party. Or, he himself may quit, something which neither he himself wants nor the newly elected president of the party, his old friend, Shahbaz Sharif.

But, the question here is about Shahbaz Sharif and not Ch Nisar Ali. Will he be able to revive the old troika, something which looked difficult, particularly after former PM's dislike of Nisar's criticism of his daughter Maryam Nawaz.

The emerging scenario in the PML-N is quite disturbing for someone like Shahbaz Sharif and that too at a time when he has not even started his new innings as the party president.

Ch Nisar was once considered as a bridge between civil and military relationship in all PML-N governments, and he also had been instrumental in appointment of successive army chiefs.

He had opposed the trial of Musharraf in 2013 in an internal party meeting. Nawaz wanted the trial as he felt that if politicians could be tried, why not others. But, he always valued Nisar's advice, even if they differ.

Nisar also played a key role during 2014, crisis and was among the few witness to a marathon meeting between former army chief, General Raheel Sharif with the then prime minister Nawaz, to overcome the 'dharna crisis’.

Thus, Ch Nisar enjoyed the highest level of confidence of Nawaz Sharif till the Panama leaks hit the headlines in April 2016.

An unimpeachable source disclosed that Nawaz Sharif had offered his resignation in a meeting of 10 to 12 party top leaders, but it was Nisar who had opposed it, saying this is not the right time. He also opposed former PM’s decision to go to Supreme Court or later was against his appearance before the joint investigation team (JIT). He believed that it was a trap for Nawaz Sharif, to which he succumbed to due to poor advice from some party leaders.

Ch Nisar also took Nawaz to Imran Khan's house on the advice of General Raheel during the army operation in North Waziristan, as Imran was quite vocal against the operation.

The message for Imran was to keep his criticism low key as it demoralised the army. Imran agreed and did not issue strong statements on the issue.

Post-July-28 SC verdict saw a deterioration of relationship between Nawaz and Nisar and increasing role of Maryam Nawaz and Pervaiz Rasheed. The latter, a PML-N senator, blamed Chaudhry Nisar for what he did to him in Dawn Leaks.

Ch Nisar still believes that Nawaz Sharif is not corrupt, but he once warned him about the people around him and told him that he could face the consequence if he did not put any check on them, a clear reference to some of PML-N ministers.

Ch Nisar and Shahbaz are still very close to each other. They had a one-on-one meeting for few hours recently to discuss the emerging crisis within the PML-N and possible implications of Nawaz Sharif's anti-judiciary stance. The two will be meeting again on Shahbaz's return from London.

Ch Nisar is not very optimistic about Shahbaz Sharif's role as the PML-N president, as he believes that he will not be allowed to be more assertive and given powers to execute his political strategy.

Shahbaz has a task ahead. While he acknowledges his brother's position and how badly he has been hurt with successive verdicts of Supreme Court, first three-member bench, followed by the JIT, and then five-member bench, but he strongly believes that in a situation where even the opposition party like the PPP, unlike in 2014, is not ready for dialogue, the PML-N can go into isolation.

Shahbaz, who also knows well that the PML-N as party may not be able to launch any kind of political agitation and thus wants to defuse situation. He believes that party's strength is its organisation and development works, which alone can lead to party's victory in 2018, as happened in 2013 and thus there is no need for harsh anti-judiciary stance.

One thing is certain that the internal differences in the party if not resolved sooner, can cost the party heavily in the elections.

He wants the PML-N government complete its term without much controversy and see an acceptable interim government. It is for sure that the next general elections will be strictly monitored by the superior judiciary, army and the Election Commission of Pakistan. It has already been decided that the army will be deployed inside the polling stations and the booth, while the ECP will ensure free and fair polls.

Shahbaz, who has seen many ups and downs post-1980s politics, is for the first time facing a situation where he is playing the role of a mediator or a middle man between Nawaz and Ch Nisar.

However, Chaudhry Nisar's latest reaction over some of the taunting remarks of Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz came at a time when Shahbaz was in London. This situation can lead to break-up of ties between Nisar and Nawaz, something which Shahbaz doesn't want.

Former information minister, Pervaiz Rasheed, who in the past two or three years, has been part of a new emerging troika in the party strongly believes that it was Ch Nisar who had helped the opposition through his position against Nawaz Sharif's narrative. He has already announced that he will oppose party's decision to allocate ticket to Ch Nisar in the next election.

Pervaiz Rasheed too has his own reasons as he was among the few PML-N leaders, who were not only tortured but faced humiliation and insults during Musharraf's coup on Oct 12, 1999.

Polarisation within the PML-N top leadership is likely to get sharpen before the next elections as verdict against Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz is expected either in the last week of April or in May.

Nawaz Sharif knows that all hopes of his possible return to parliament in 2018 elections have now vanished after the Senate elections. Now his biggest challenge is to ensure that political legacy continues through his daughter, Maryam Nawaz.

Ch Nisar's public criticism of Maryam has made Nawaz unhappy as he himself has praised his daughter for her courage against all odds. He considered Nisar's criticism of her uncalled for as she always avoided criticism of him and showed respect for him. Nisar believes that he always reacted and never acted when someone tried to distort facts.

Nawaz Sharif, who has not met Ch Nisar for months, was also disappointed that he did not stand with him in this most difficult phase of his political life.

Shahbaz Sharif's efforts for a meeting between the old troika to remove all kinds of misunderstandings have not been successful so far, as Ch Nisar's feels that the former premier, since post-Panama leaks, has badly been misguided.

Nawaz camps believes that had Nawaz not taken the position he took after July 28, and had he not taken the GT Road route, the PML-N would have been finished.

Now, Maryam Nawaz, Pervaiz Rasheed and others strongly believe that the aggressive policy had exposed many faces within and outside PML-N. They also give credit to party's success in the by-elections to post-GT Road strategy.

Well informed sources said the two brothers had a marathon meeting after Shahbaz was elected as president PML-N and the recent statement of Nawaz regarding a dialogue among the institutions was perhaps the first attempt to resolve the differences.

Depending on the final role of Ch Nisar in the party, the chances of the revival of old troika has almost diminished and with the new troika emerging comprising, Nawaz Sharif, Maryam Nawaz and Pervaiz Rasheed, Shahbaz Sharif may find himself in a win-win situation.

Where Ch Nisar will go in case he reaches a decision to break his 35-year relationship with Nawaz Sharif and PML-N? Will he quit politics or contest the next elections as an independent candidate, is difficult to predict, but he has to give a lot of explanation in case he decides to joint his college days friend, Imran Khan and that too at the cost of another friend, Shahbaz Sharif, because Nisar rarely took a U-turn.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO