Battle of NA-120

The September 17 by-election in the Lahore constituency of NA-120 is not an ordinary election. It is the first test of popularity of both the PTI and the PML-N since the Supreme Court’s decision to disqualify former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

The stakes are very high for these major political players. The 321,786 registered voters and 220 polling stations will not only decide the fate of the contesting candidates but will also determine the real impact of the Panama verdict on ordinary folks in Punjab.

For the PML-N, this election is to maintain its political domination, and the hegemony and popularity it has enjoyed since 1985. The party is not just vying for a normal victory; it is aiming for a crushing one to prove that Panama verdict hasn’t changed much. A victory with a reduced or narrow margin will have a negative impact on its supporters. The PML-N needs a majority of at least 20,000 votes to send a clear message to its opponents and critics.

The absence of both Nawaz Sharif and candidate Begum Kulsoom Nawaz from the constituency might cost the PML-N a few thousand votes. Both are in London for the cancer treatment of Kulsoom Nawaz, who could not attend a single public meeting or even make a public appearance in the constituency. So Maryam Nawaz is the lone ranger in this battle. She is leading the campaign, and has had the opportunity to show her political credentials. A huge win will cement her position in the PML-N. If she fails her first real political test and loses the election, it can ruin her political future.

For the PTI, this election is an important opportunity to prove that it has the capacity to translate its popularity in certain layers and segments of society into votes. The PTI is undoubtedly capable of organising bigger public rallies than the PML-N, but electoral politics is a completely different ball game. The PTI needs to translate its tall claims of enjoying massive support among the youth and the middle class into actual votes.  

I don’t think the PTI can cause one of the biggest upsets of our electoral history. Dr Yasmeen Rashid is facing an uphill task. She lost to Nawaz Sharif in 2013 with a margin of nearly 40,000 votes. If she wants to cause an upset then she needs at least 20,000 to 25,000 more votes and still hope that the PML-N lose nearly 20,000 votes. I don’t think that is going to happen. She is facing the most organised and lethal electoral machine – known as the PML-N. If she is able to increase her votes and reduce the margin of victory, it should be taken as a big achievement. A PTI victory in this election will definitely demoralise PML-N voters and activists and thus can cause more political damage than the Panama verdict. Even a close contest and a narrow PML-N win will be a morale-booster for the PTI.

For the PPP, this election is not about winning or losing but about reviving some of its lost vote bank. It will also be seen where the PPP stands now. Around 10,000 or slightly less or more votes will be a satisfying result for the party. But couple of thousand votes like the 2013 elections will be a disaster for the party. That will further demoralise party cadres and end any prospects of its revival in Punjab before the next general elections. A respectable number of votes will give confidence and determination to the party cadres to go all out in selected constituencies to win a dozen or so seats from Punjab.   

The religious political parties have fielded their candidates as well. The Jamaat-e-Islami has Ziauddin Ansari and decided on a solo flight. The JI might get a couple of thousand votes. Independent candidate Sheikh Muhammad Yaqoob is backed by the Milli Muslim League (MML) formed by supporters of Hafiz Saeed and the banned JuD. In total, these parties might end up getting between 5000 and 8000 votes.

This constituency is a mix of middle class and relatively poor areas. It constituency runs through the main commercial centres of Lahore and so traders play an important role in the politics of this constituency. Traders have been traditional supporters of the PML-N and a majority of them is still inclined towards the party. Most of the major traders’ organisations are backing the PML-N in this election. Even in the traditional middle class and well-off areas of this constituency, the PML-N is in the lead.

It is generally believed that the PTI enjoys massive support among the middle class. But the opposite trend exists in this constituency.  Contrary to the general perception, the PTI is doing well in some lower middle and poor areas. But this support is not enough to turn the tables on the PML-N. The PTI has failed to go beyond certain anti-PML-N layers in the poor and working class areas to win over and mobilise independent sections of the working class population. No political party seems interested or capable to mobilise the 50 percent voters who prefer to stay at homes and watch TV than to go out and cast votes. The PTI successfully mobilised upper middle class and middle class educated voters in the posh areas of Lahore in the last general elections but failed to win over the working class and poor voters.

This election is all about money, power, prestige and domination. Millions have already been spent, and this might become the most expensive election ever – surpassing the NA-122 election. In the end, it is obvious that the elite have successfully thrown out the middle and working classes from the election arena.

The writer is a freelance journalist.