When hope trumps anger

The French have voted in the first round of their presidential election, sending Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen to the decisive second round on May 7.

Macron, a former minister of economy under the socialist Francois Hollande, contested in the name of his own movement and secured 23.8 percent votes, leaving the official Socialist Party candidate Benoit Hamon with a meagre six percent of the overall vote. This had a sobering effect on the sitting socialist president, Francois Hollande, who quickly called Macron to felicitate him on the first-round victory.

Hollande suffered a serious setback when the socialist primaries disowned him for re-election, leaving the field wide open for Macron, a centrist, to claim bulk of the socialist support. If the centre-right Republicans were hoping to benefit from divisions in the centre-left vote bank, they were in for a shock as their candidate, Francois Fillon, was engulfed in a malpractices scandal for appointing family members to paid party positions while he was the prime minister.

Fillon ended in the third position with nearly 20 percent of the vote, behind Macron and Le Pen who scored 23.8 percent and 21.5 percent, respectively. Nobody is giving Le Pen any chance of reaching the Elysees Palace after the second round. Suffice it to say that she has beaten the two main party candidates in the first round after creating a genuine scare about her ultranationalist and anti-EU agenda. The term ‘Frexit’ was coined just in case the French anger over immigration and joblessness spilled over into a Le Pen victory.

Dominique Moisie, one of the veteran political analysts, says that the first round ended in a victory of hope over anger. There is a wide consensus that hope will decisively win in the second round by a ratio of 60 to 40, resulting in a clear Macron victory. However, 40 percent is a large part of the electorate and if Le Pen succeeds in getting that score, it will be something unprecedented. The only other time the National Front reached the second round of a presidential election was in 2002, when Marine’s father and the founder of the party, Jean-Marie Le Pen, contested against the then president Jacques Chirac. However, he could only muster 18 percent of the vote against Chirac’s 82 percent.

The French presidential election is unique in the world as it allows the voters to have their cake and eat it as well. The saying goes that the French voter casts the first ballot with their heart, giving vent to their emotions. Two weeks later, they vote with their minds. If Le Pen scores more than one-third of the popular vote in the second round, that would generate greater heat in the run-up to the parliamentary election scheduled for the month of June.

A debate has already begun about the composition of the National Assembly that Macron would have to contend with as president. The two major parties – the Socialists and the Republicans – can rely on their formidable electoral machines and their wide support in the political class to capture large shares of the assembly seats.

Macron, at 39, is heading towards becoming the youngest-ever French president. He quit Hollande’s cabinet last year to form his own movement, En Marche (On the Move). From that modest start, Macron – the former civil servant, investment banker and presidential adviser – has advanced on the presidential horizon at a tremendous pace.

An “insider” of business and government quickly transformed himself into a formidable “outsider” presidential candidate. He promises to renovate the French political system. The slogan resonated enough with the voters to push the two big parties to the side, giving Macron a lead in the first round.

His election manifesto includes cuts in business taxes, public spending and even the number of MPs. In contrast to Le Pen, he is a strong supporter of the EU. For those who think he is too young, it should be pointed out that he has been preparing for the top job for decades. Macron told his close friends at 16 that he would one day be the president of France.

Questions have been raised about his career as an investment banker and his possible affinity with big business. But his heart is in the right place as he supports business as a means to benefit the people. He urged the US academics and entrepreneurs who are feeling uneasy with Trump’s policies to move to France.

As the economy minister, he had the ‘Macron bill’ passed to steer the socialist government towards more business-friendly policies. His overall philosophy is socially liberal, pro-business and centrist. Yet, there is an element of Trump in him because he is also seen as not being part of the political elite.

A report in the Business Insider UK states that: “given the current climate in France, after several terrorist attacks which shook and divided the nation, the centrist position of Macron may be an attractive choice”.

As things are moving, within weeks Macron is likely to lead France, the fifth global power, both in economic and military terms, with a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. It has a reputation of resisting the Anglo-American tandem in world affairs. France is also a counterweight to Germany’s towering position in the EU, more so after the British have voted to exit the union.

France is also a major economic partner of Pakistan in trade and economic spheres, with a growing profile in educational and scientific fields. Macron as president is likely to raise France’s profile in European and world affairs – which should be good news for emerging markets like Pakistan.

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