Post-Panama Pakistan

When Maulana Fazlur Rahman of the JUI-F says that he and his party have significantly contributed to making godless China take the leap into CPEC and move beyond a militaristic relationship with Pakistan to the next level of economic and people-to-people relationship, he has something going on in his mind. You wouldn’t normally see an Islamic party hobnobbing with Communist China. 

The last one remembers of Islamists consorting with the Chinese was when the Maulana’s political cousin, Maulana Samiul Haq of the JUI-S led a charge against some Chinese outlets in Islamabad catering to the leisure and comfort industry. Since then, Lal Masjid has taken over this righteous responsibility but the Maulana of Madrassa-e-Haqqania was surely the first crusader in this noble task of ‘enjoining good’ on the people and, where they desist, to use appropriate mechanisms to enforce one.

What may one make of this apparently outlandish claim by the Maulana? Were one to work hard, it may be possible to invent some relevance to the Maulana’s claims, but that will take us deep into Kashgar and the restive Xinjiang Province. For the moment, we should restrict ourselves to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa only. Should IK, and his PTI, then fear the Maulana’s pronouncements? Now you’re talking.

Briefly, go back to 2013 and the election outcome. The Maulana and the PML-N – aided by some bit players who attach themselves with the majority for reasonable RoI (Return on Investment) – could have denied the PTI a government in KP. NS played well and permitted a majority government under the PTI, hoping to get a smooth run when all are comfortable in their respective remits. Sadly, that didn’t happen and the PTI hasn’t let the government in the centre an easy moment, perpetually buffeting them with political and legal challenges. It is not without reason then that the prime minister calls his current tenure in office as the most difficult among the three he’s had. There are surely a number of reasons to it but the challenge posed by IK resonates high.

So what could the PM be thinking? He has activated his cadres in KP through the likes of Amir Muqam, taking on the rather weak Pervez Khattak and hence the PTI. Similarly the JUI-F retains its standard vote-bank in KP. The PTI also appeared laggard in governance and failed to make an immediate impact. Stories of corruption abounded around the PTI leadership in the province, relegating them to the level of all others. It is only lately that one has begun to hear of reforms in the police, education and health sectors, and work on forestation taking effect. These are slow to show projects but will serve the people of KP very well if continued.

This tells me three things: the PTI may not increase its quota of seats in KP – enough political space having been ceded away to other entities. They could also lose some instead in an environment of enhanced Pakhtun nationalism where the PTI has been forever dragged as an outsider (read: Punjab).

If the PML-N does better – which it is likely to given that Hazara is a traditional bastion and the PTI has worked its hardest proving its Pakhtun credentials alienating many in Hazara already – the Maulana may be in for another crowning in cohorts with an electorally improved PML-N. See why he seems rejuvenated? The two this time around are unlikely to let the PTI rule over them even if theirs is a minority government in KP. This turn of events will then generate more adverse pressure on the PTI in Punjab, already lagging behind the formidable PML-N presence in structures and organisation there.

Enter Asif Ali Zardari in Punjab – and on his own terms, mind you; Memon, Asim and Kazmi were out for services that AAZ will now perform on behalf of the PML-N. Having been totally – and that means totally – vanquished in Punjab in 2013, AAZ knows that the way to the centre goes through Punjab, even while Sindh is in his pocket. If not for 2018, since he can hardly hope to get his structure in place by then, for the future he must repair some damage there if he ever hopes to see his progeny rule at the centre.

AAZ has thus gone about giving the impression that he is a serious contender again in 2018; that he still has an aura and the PPP is not entirely dead in Punjab; and that an enfeebled NS post-Panama meansAAZ is the only alternate. The struggle is thus between the PTI and the PPP to present themselves as the most authentic challenger to a weakened NS and an injured PML-N.

Guess who is the beneficiary even if the PML-N struggles with its own future in the Supreme Court? The PTI made around eight million votes in 2013; the PML-N had double of that. It is quite likely that the PTI may not make those numbers again for lack of sufficient organisational work at the constituency level. The PML-N will lose numbers because of the affliction which is unlikely to wash off completely. The PML-N’s dilemma will be whether to use available time till 2018 elections to wash the blot off or go for an immediate election in 2017 garnishing a victim syndrome, and beating others in time on the back of better organisational presence. This way they might also preclude vulnerable electables from exposure to manipulative forces.

The cumulative gain though from losses in both the PTI and the PML-N will be to the PPP, helping the party make its presence felt again in Punjab but still not enough to upset the status quo. As the PPP and the PTI slug it out, the PML-N hopes to sail past in this key battleground province – albeit with a lower majority this time. If they delay the elections to 2018, the tables might turn all the way.

This leads us to the million dollar question: how desperate are the three stakeholders – the PTI, the PPP and the establishment – to see the back of the PML-N on the basis of their lowered stock because of Panama? The establishment always claims to play neutral but has its ways to indicate its preference, which usually corresponds to the largely held public opinion.

With the PTI’s belatedly invoked but improving credentials in KP, does it now have a better standing with the establishment? Surely AAZ is hardly ever going to be the establishment’s choice. With NS losing his credibility significantly, the choice will be restricted to someone from within the PML-N to give the new government better credibility – or can a more palatable IK be the new choice?

It all depends on how fragmented the mandate is; but never give up on something like AAZ in the presidency and IK in the PM House. That will, though, need a binding agent to act as the catalyst. But are we that desperate to see off the PML-N?

Email: shhzdchdhry@yahoo.com