LONDON: Pakistan’s former three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif only returned from self-imposed exile last year but is now the clear front-runner to win the February 8 election, BBC News reported.
Earlier, Gallup survey and Bloomberg had also assessed Nawaz Sharif being next premier of Pakistan.
Few could have predicted his return to the top, despite his dominance in Pakistani politics for much of these past three decades.
His last term ended in him being convicted of corruption, and the time before that, he was toppled in a military coup.
Still, he appears on the brink of making another successful comeback.
“He’s a top candidate to be the next premier not because he’s wildly popular - he certainly is not - but more so because he’s played his cards right,” says analyst Michael Kugelman, the South Asia Director at the Wilson Center think tank.
Mr Sharif’s arch-rival and former prime minister Imran Khan is now in jail.
One might say that Mr Sharif is the king of comebacks. He’s certainly done it before.
Ousted from his second term in a 1999, he returned in the 2013 parliamentary elections, staging a triumphant comeback to become prime minister for a record third term.
But Nawaz Sharif’s last period in office was marred by upheavals - starting with a six-month opposition blockade of the capital Islamabad, and ending with court proceedings over corruption allegations which eventually led to the Supreme Court disqualifying him in July 2017. He resigned shortly afterwards.
In July 2018 he was found guilty of corruption by a court in Pakistan and given a 10-year sentence. But he was released two months later when the court suspended the sentences, pending a final judgment.
By December 2018, however, he was jailed for corruption again, this time for seven years, in relation to his family’s ownership of steel mills in Saudi Arabia.
He then fought for bail arguing he needed medical treatment in the UK. This was granted in 2019, allowing him to flee to London where he lived in a luxury flat in exile for four years until his return last October.
Even in absentia though, he has been one of the country’s leading politicians for the past 35 years.
Observers recall him as not being a particularly impressive political figure, but said he nonetheless proved himself an adept administrator. He became prime minister in 1990, but was dismissed in 1993, clearing the way for the then opposition leader, Benazir Bhutto, to form a government.
Mr Sharif’s overthrowing in 1999 by then army chief Pervez Musharraf showed how dangerous it was for any politician to attempt to curtail the military’s influence in Pakistan.
Mr Sharif was arrested, jailed and eventually sentenced to life imprisonment on charges of hijacking and terrorism. He was also convicted of corruption and banned for life from political activities.
But an alleged deal, brokered by the Saudis, saved him and other family members from being put behind the bars. Mr Sharif and 40 members of his family were exiled to Saudi Arabia for what was supposed to be a period of 10 years.
Owen Bennett-Jones, BBC Islamabad correspondent at the time, recalls that when Mr Sharif was removed from power, many Pakistanis expressed great relief, describing him as corrupt, incompetent and power-hungry.
Mr Sharif’s first time in the political wilderness lasted until his triumphal return to Pakistan in 2007 following a deal with the military.
But problems multiplied and the only economic highlight - the Chinese-funded $56bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor- has been mired in the country’s fragile economy with only some projects delivered so far.
In 2016, the Panama Papers leaks unleashed a new threat for the prime minister which resulted in claims of corruption being investigated by the Supreme Court.
The allegations related to his family’s ownership of apartments in an upmarket area of central London, with questions being raised over the money trail that led to the acquisition of those properties.
Nawaz Sharif denied all wrongdoing and called the charges politically motivated.
However, on July 6, 2018 a court in Pakistan found him guilty of corruption and sentenced him - in absentia - to 10 years in prison. When the sentence was announced he was in London where his terminally-ill wife was receiving medical treatment.
Mr Sharif’s daughter and son-in-law were also convicted.
The former leader chose to stay in London as his rival Imran Khan ruled the country.
But Khan’s term in power was also turbulent and his relationship with the military deteriorated.
In 2022, Khan was ousted in a parliamentary vote of no-confidence paving the way for Mr Sharif’s party, led by his younger brother Shehbaz, to take charge.
Mr Sharif has been tilting to get back into power even since Imran Khan’s fall, stepping up political engagements.
He made a triumphant return in October 2023, and in the months since all legal cases that were still outstanding against him have melted away.
His path is clear to retake power if his party wins the most votes.
Not that they’re a shoo in - there’s a lot of resentment against Mr Sharif and his party, who are blamed for Pakistan’s economic misery. Mr Sharif is also heavily tarnished by his corruption accusations.
“They are going to win it but no party really ever comes in with an absolute majority, apart from Sharif once,” said Dr Farzana Shaikh, an associate fellow at Chatham House’s Asia-Pacific programme.
“Everything points to him coming in as prime minister, or head of the largest party,” she said, but added that it was uncertain what type of working majority he might have.
It is a turbulent, volatile time in Pakistan politics and Mr Sharif is presenting himself as the experienced leader with a track record of three premierships.
He’s promising to stabilise the economy and “right the ship” in Pakistan.
“Sharif’s supporters will hope his narrative of stability, experience, and dependability will get him votes - and also make the army comfortable with him, or at least comfortable with his party,” says Mr Kugelman.
But analysts are still wary. He has a number of issues to navigate - not least an economy in crisis, for which his party is largely blamed, and widespread feelings the vote will not be fair because his main opponent is locked up.
“He is struggling because his party, led by his brother, was senior partner in the former coalition government, which had to implement a series of economic policies which have exacted a very high toll,” says Dr Shaikh.
“Sharif and his party have been blamed for the economic misery if not the crisis that engulfs the country.”
He strongly criticised the nation’s judiciary, accusing judges of collusion and saying he had been the victim of “bogus cases”. This, he said, had resulted in a crippled democracy that hadn’t let any of Pakistan’s prime ministers complete their constitutional tenure in office.
The military has never breathed a word on whether it prefers Mr Sharif or Mr Khan or any other political leader - stating on record that it does not get involved in politics.
“The fact that he’s received so much legal relief since returning home proves that he’s back in the good graces,” says Mr Kugelman.
