ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s revised GDP growth for the last financial year will be turned from slightly positive to a massive negative growth of over minus one per cent to comply with the IMF’s condition for dissemination of quarterly national accounts.
The GDP growth rate under the PDM-led Shahbaz Sharif government had shown a provisional number of slight positives at 0.29 per cent for the last financial year. Now under the IMF’s Standby Arrangement (SBA) program, Pakistan is bound for preparation and dissemination of Quarterly National Accounts (QNAs) from the first quarter (July-September) period and revised estimates of the financial year 2023. “Now the ratification exercise will have to be done after which the provisional GDP growth figure will be turned from positive to negative over -1 per cent” official sources told The News here on Friday. The ratification of national accounts will also result in the possibility of jacking up the growth rate to 6.5 per cent under the PTI-led regime in the fiscal year 2021-22. In the last fiscal year exercise, the GDP growth figure for the fiscal year 2021-22 was revised downward up to 6.10 per cent. The micromanagement was up to such an extent on the growth figures as the PBS high-ups remained under pressure to bring it down from 6.12 per cent to 6.10 per cent for the fiscal year 2021-22 to show the figure of less than PML (N) led regime in 2017-18.
The Ministry of Finance held deliberations to place preparation for coming up with quarterly national accounts under the IMF program and it was informed in the meeting that the QNAs would be accomplished within the envisaged deadline of November 30, 2023.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) had kick-started preparing GDP growth figures every quarter during the last tenure of the PML (N) led regime from 2013-18 but this exercise was abandoned when the growth figure nosedived in the second quarter of the financial year 2014-15.
The IMF program envisages enhancing the timely provision of key macroeconomic data. Supported by Technical Assistance (TA) from IFIs, the PBS has made progress in preparing for the compilation and publication of Quarterly National Accounts (QNA).
The implementation of QNA will help better inform policymakers and private sector stakeholders about the state of the economy and allow for a nimbler policy response while strengthening transparency. It will also ensure more timely revisions to the provisional annual estimates, currently compiled in the last quarter of a fiscal year and usually unrevised for 12 months. The Pakistani authorities agreed with the IMF to work towards the compilation and dissemination of QNA starting with FY24Q1 and the publication of revised annual estimates for FY23 for end-November 2023 as a structural benchmark (SB) of the IMF.
In the signed dispatched document to the IMF, Pakistani authorities have recognized the importance of timely, reliable, and comprehensive provision of macroeconomic data. In this regard, we are committed to furnishing the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) with the requisite resources to commence the planned compilation and dissemination of the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) starting with FY24Q1 and the timely revision of annual provisional estimates for FY 2023.
