The Climate Change Committee (CCC) has given a “wakeup call” to UK ministers as the country needs to fundamentally prepare for the extreme weather with a top-level target of resilience against 2°C of global warming within a generation.
On Wednesday, October 15, the landmark recommendation issued a letter to the government directly addressing the growing likelihood of the world breaching the ambitious 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement.
This suggestion marks the first time the CCC has set such an "absolute" target focusing on “kickstart” much-delayed efforts to strengthen the nation’s infrastructure from buckling railway lines and flooded homes to sweltering, underprepared hospitals and schools.
The serious warning issued by CCC was immediately followed by another political wave as The Guardian reported that a major intelligence report underlining the “severe threat” the climate and nature crises pose to UK national security has been delayed, with sources fearing it is being “suppressed” by Number 10.
The new advice showed a substantial risk recalibration. As the international community works tirelessly to ensure warming is kept to 1.5°C, the action of the CCC recognizes this reality and that the UK must prepare to face a more discontinuous reality when planning.
“Though the change from 1.5°C and 2°C may sound small, the difference in impacts would be substantial,” Professor Richard Betts of the CCC told Sky News.
He described that a 2°C world would imply twice as many individuals facing the danger of flooding in certain regions and in southern England tenfold as many days when there is a very high danger of wildfires- a developing and serious danger to Britain.
The committee observed that the UK is already finding it difficult to manage the droughts, floods, and heatwave caused by the existing 1.4°C of warming, citing this year which records the second worst harvest in the history of the country and a heatwave summer that caused 300 excess deaths in London.
Baroness Brown, Deputy Chair of the CCC Adaptation Committee, made it clear that “We continue to believe 1.5°C is achievable as a long-term goal. But clearly the risk it will not be achieved is getting higher, and for risk management we do believe we have to plan for 2°C.”
In addition, the advisors explained that large new infrastructure developments such as the government initiative into new nuclear power plants and houses need to be made flexible to up to 4°C of warming by the end of the century which is a worst-case scenario that, while unlikely, cannot be ruled out.
The stark warnings from the CCC and the intelligence community highlights a converging crisis, where domestic resilience and international security are inextricably linked.
Royal Society adviser, Professor Eric Wolff stated, “It is now very challenging even to stay below two degrees.”
“This is a wakeup call both to continue reducing emissions, but at the same time to prepare our infrastructure and economy for the inevitable climate changes that we are already committed to.”
The revelations also cast a shadow over the next COP30 climate summit in Brazil.
Though the UK has been on the higher end of leading in defining emission reduction levels, the security report suppression and the incisive adaptation caution provided by the CCC indicate a government that is unable to balance its climate agenda and the reality of risk management and national preparedness.
The question now is whether this "wake-up call" will prompt a transformative programe of national resilience, or if the warnings will be drowned out by political short-termism.
