Sports

Pakistan's qualifying scenario for Asia Cup 2025 final

Pakistan’s challenge is made more difficult by defeat against India on Sunday

By Faizan Lakhani

Published September 22, 2025

Haris Rauf celebrates with teammates after taking the wicket of Indias Suryakumar Yadav at Dubai International Cricket Stadium on September 21, 2025. — Reuters — Haris Rauf celebrates with teammates after taking the wicket of India's Suryakumar Yadav at Dubai International Cricket Stadium on September 21, 2025. — Reuters

Pakistan are still in the running for a place in the Asia Cup 2025 final, but their qualification route remains uncertain and may hinge on net run rate (NRR).

Even back-to-back victories in their remaining fixtures may not guarantee progress, while in certain scenarios, a single win could prove enough.

For instance, if India win all three of their Super Four matches, and Pakistan manage to beat Bangladesh but fall to Sri Lanka, India would advance with three victories, leaving the other three sides tied on one win each. In that case, NRR would determine the second finalist.

Another possibility sees Pakistan beating both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, India defeating Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh upsetting India. In that case, three teams would end with two wins apiece, again pushing qualification to NRR.

If both Pakistan and India were to win all of their remaining fixtures, they would make it to the final to be played on September 26. In this case, India would have three wins, Pakistan two, Bangladesh one and Sri Lanka none, providing the most straightforward path to the final.

Pakistan's challenge is made more difficult by the defeat against India. In the Super Four clash in Dubai on Sunday, Pakistan posted 171–5 but fell as India chased the target in 18.5 overs.

Abhishek Sharma’s 74 off 39 and Shubman Gill’s 47 off 28 set up India’s six-wicket win, strengthening their NRR advantage.

In the other Super Four match, Bangladesh defeated Sri Lanka in a close contest.

Chasing 169, Bangladesh secured victory by four wickets with one ball to spare, thanks to half-centuries from Saif Hassan (61) and Towhid Hridoy (58). Mustafizur Rahman led their bowling effort with 3-20, while Sri Lanka’s Dasun Shanaka fought back with an unbeaten 64 off 37.

The result has opened up qualification pathways and ensured NRR will likely prove crucial.