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Tuesday March 19, 2024

Will this crisis end soon?

By Mazhar Abbas
May 04, 2016

Political temperature reached new heights Tuesday when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif passed the strongest possible message to the Opposition — “I am not to going to bow down.”

Was this a wise move on PM’s part at a time when the opposition united on the Terms of Reference (ToRs) while the response from the Supreme Court over government letter for Judicial Commission is expected anytime? Shouldn’t the PM have invited the Opposition for talks to defuse the situation? The emerging scenario is disturbing unless some mature political minds sit together and get both sides around the table. 

A divided Opposition of Monday looked more united Tuesday as they agreed on the ToRs and practically dropped the demand of PM’s resignation for the time being. This is the best time for negotiations as we all wait for the response from the Chief Justice of Pakistan Justice Anwar Jamali as well on Judicial Commission. 

Situation has not reached the 1993-like juncture, and there is little chance of 1977-like crisis, but the PM’s speechhas certainly pushed the Opposition to one page.  Even if government is in no mood to accept all their demands, an invitation to parliamentary parties could have lead to “ceasefire” on rallies, statements and public meetings.

Even within the Opposition the parties know that PM’s target was certainly not the entire Opposition but his main political rival Imran Khan.  Earlier, the Opposition parties too emerged “divided” both in position and strategy as fingers have also been pointed out towards leaders in their rank and file in “Panama Leaks”. Thus acceptance of the earlier demand for a joint session of the Parliament within 15 days where PM should declare assets would have cooled down the situation. 

Whether his tone in Bannu would help defuse the tension or raised it to new heights would be known in couple of days. This approach helps leaders like IK, who is in a mood of confrontation which suits him and for that matter any opposition.

PML-N strategy of taking opponents head on was surprising as the mainstream Opposition after Monday’s meeting has come out with demands that would take politics from the street back to the Parliament, even if IK continued with his public meetings. The PM’s back-to-back speeches and strong position have once again charged the atmosphere. 

Politics is a game of grabbing opportunities and IK realised this after the 126-day dharnas. Unlike in 2014, when IK was in political isolation and mainstream parties rallied around Nawaz, it’s the other way round today. In the last two years, the government lost the initiative as well as its friends. For whatever reason, the fact remained that both the PPP and the MQM, who had opposed PM’s resignation in 2014, now wanted it as pre-condition. It could be their U-turn, but it is the PML-N, which needs to revisit its politics after it comes out of the crisis. If the PM continued this kind of offensive, he might induce unity in the Opposition. 

The PM appeared confident and relaxed in Quetta Monday, but on Tuesday quite aggressive — typical of a politician from Punjab — and as expected the PTI was the first to react.  What PM needs to realise that his aggressive tone promises little. It suits IK as he would step up his attack despite milder posture of other Opposition parties. For instance, the PPP and the MQM were not very expressive in their demand for resignation as the PTI and the JI. In fact, these parties took a “U-turn” while the PPP leadership changed their stance after PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto not only demanded PM’s resignation but also came down hard on him. Except Aitzaz Ahsan, other party leaders were not very convinced in demanding resignation prior to the JC report, though they were on one page after Bilawal’s statement.

The PPP, fighting a battle for survival, decided to take strong posture to lead the anti-Nawaz agitation after the PML-N-led government failed to give it (PPP) any relief in Karachi Operation that has widened the distance between the top leadership of the two parties — Asif Zardari and Nawaz Sharif. 

The MQM decision surprised many as only a few hours before the meeting, they had been opposing premier’s resignation before completion of probe against him. So, it is a big “U-turn” and this change of heart on MQM’s part, raised questions.

Like the PPP, the MQM too has been trying for better working relations with the PML-N, but cold response from the government has pushed them into the main Opposition camp. They did not have any relief from the federal government but even then till Monday evening they had not supported the demand for PM’s resignation.

Therefore, it is quite intriguing as what could have happened in the last few hours that MQM fully endorsed Opposition’s demands including PM’s resignation. Interestingly, both the PPP and the MQM are not in the “good books” of the establishment and neither of the two got any relief in Sindh as yet? 

  Now, all eyes are set on the Supreme Court as Opposition had reached a consensus on the ToRs. There is every possibility that if the government invited the Opposition to talks on the ToRs, the Chief Justice might wait, if no further political developments linked with the decision of the CJ takes place, to accept, reject or seek amendment in the government proposed ToRs. (The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang)