More than a fist hitting

the table
There is never a dull moment in Pakistan. Episode upon episode of nail-biting drama keeps news channels busy and the citizens glued to their screens. A few weeks back, the Rangers delivered the ultimate shock to Karachiites when they decided to conduct an operation at Nine-Zero, the infamous headquarters of the MQM, and arrested a number of wanted criminals as well as a few party workers and leaders.
This turn of events came out of nowhere and even the prime minister seemed to be unaware as he was meeting MQM leaders in Karachi the very day his forces were tearing down barricades leading to the MQM headquarters. Other more astute observers, however, had predicted the imminent operation following the movements of pro-establishment actors such as Nabil Gabol, as well as the sudden increase in anti-MQM rhetoric by Imran Khan.
The reasons behind the sudden decision by the military establishment baffled many. Some attributed it to the appointment of General Rizwan Akhtar as the director general of the ISI. Since Rizwan Akhtar had previously been the director general of Rangers and handled the security situation in Karachi, it was argued that he had an informed opinion about the source of lawlessness in the city, which the new military leadership wanted to root out. Other observers claimed it was the waning power of Altaf Hussain due to ongoing cases against him in London that encouraged the establishment to deliver the final blow to the party’s militant wing. While these perspectives are often discussed in the media, what is often ignored is the broader socio-economic context of this operation.
To understand the broader context, we need to first appreciate the importance of Karachi for the rest of the country in general, and for central Punjab in particular. Karachi is the economic hub of the country, the gateway port-city that handles the bulk of import and export needs of the country. The total trade both ways stands at almost $70 billion per annum. Since almost half of the population of Pakistan lives in Punjab and consumes almost 70 percent of electricity generated in the country (a measure of economic activity), the majority of items traded through Karachi are consumed and produced in central Punjab.
While Punjab happens to be the biggest beneficiary of the international trade through Karachi, it suffers the most due to any disruption in this trade. The lawlessness in Karachi in recent years was hurting business. Armed groups inside the MQM, and Lyari gang members were forcing importers and exporters to pay heavy extortion to let their goods pass through the port city. Businessmen were being abducted and extortion slips with bullets were a norm for everyday business life in Karachi. This subsequently made business difficult and impacted the price on which products could be bought and sold, and hence the economy of the entire country suffered.
Besides being the population hub of Pakistan, Punjab is also the political nerve-centre of the country. Every power-broker in Pakistan contends to please Punjab to secure a place in the federal power landscape. Nawaz Sharif, Imran Khan, and the Pakistan Army are all trying to outdo each other to attract Punjab’s favour. Nawaz Sharif may have won Punjab’s votes in 2013, but he was finally outmanoeuvred. Soon after the change of guard at the top-most level in the military, Imran Khan’s dharna brpke Nawaz Sharif’s relative free run in power, and the army got popularity enough to aggressively tackle the long-term security related problems of the country, whether that be the Taliban or the MQM.
The current security operation in Karachi, thus, has less to do with the MQM or Karachi than with Punjab and the larger policy arena of Pakistan. After gaining popularity in Punjab, the army can now further consolidate its control on Pakistan’s foreign and security policy. Many such matters can now be decided in the GHQ without the unnecessary annoyance from the civilian government.
Sartaj Aziz, Tariq Fatmi, Khawaja Asif, and Chaudhry Nisar of team Nawaz Sharif can be as ineffective as Shah Mahmood Qureshi, Hina Rabbani Khar, Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar, and Rahman Malik of team Asif Zardari. The operation then appears to have a well-thought-out plan to gain further support in Punjab for the army, rather than a spur of the moment decision of a general banging his fist on the table.
Email: obedpasha@yahoo.com