The centre will hold?

Sunday’s devastating defeat for the PML-N seemed to pretty much spell the end of their Punjab government and make their government in the centre all set to collapse as well under pressure by a giddy-with-victory PTI. Things, however, are not as simple in the grand game of electoral politics, and the almost-convincing idea that the centre cannot hold is losing favour fast. The PDM coalition partners met on Tuesday in a what-next huddle, and have – for now – decided to persevere with their federal domain instead of opting for an early general election. The Punjab by-polls have mainly placed the PML-N in a precarious position: stay in the federal government and face an unforgiving economy as well as an Imran Khan fresh off an astounding victory, or go for elections and face an unforgiving voter at a time when Imran’s popularity graph is at an all-time high. There has been talk that this is a matter of debate also within the party.

For now, the coalition government has decided to complete its tenure. For political observers, there is ample logic in staying put – the foremost being that having a caretaker setup when we are negotiating with the IMF is simply not good for the economy. The counter-argument which makes sense given the PTI’s history is that there can be no economic stability without political stability and if there are no early elections, Imran Khan will hardly sit quietly. In any case, Imran has left no opportunity to attack the ECP and the chief election commissioner – despite independent analysis calling the Sunday by-polls free of rigging or manipulation. And yesterday’s decision by the coalition government will not have gone down well with Imran, who may well have been expecting a defeated PML-N to buckle. While it may be a delaying tactic, the government sounds serious about continuing in office and even continuing its economic policies – tough though they may be and despite the glaringly obvious negative repercussions they could have at the ballot box.

As the centre stands with the PDM at least for the present, Punjab too just can’t catch a break. The by-polls’ results should ideally have put to rest any debate about who forms government but turns out the PML-N may have rethought its magnanimity and may just be opting for defiance. Several PML-N leaders have indicated that the party has a few PTI MPAs who can vote for Hamza Shehbaz on election day. There is a strong opinion though within the PML-N – as articulated by Maryam Nawaz in a tweet – that they should give up the government gracefully if they don’t have the adequate numbers to form a government. What eventually happens will be clear on July 22 but there is a view in the PML-N that if Imran can fight till the end and only gain in popularity then why not the PML-N? Unfortunately, they seem to have forgotten the varying factors that have made Imran this popular at this time. There is no denying that the PML-N has the most to lose if it continues in office. Tragically for the party it also has the most to lose if it goes to the polls right away. Perhaps the time for the Nawaz ‘trump card’, which is now once again being openly talked about by PML-N leaders, has finally arrived?