Big development expected as Biden visits Mideast

KARACHI: US President Joe Biden has landed in Israel and is going to visit the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Media reports claim Saudi Arabia could recognise Israel and it is the Iran threat that is expected to bring the two states closer.

According to Washington Post, “There, the common adversary is Iran, not Russia. There’s nothing as galvanizing as the invasion of Ukraine to bring together fractious neighbors Israel, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. But Iran’s nuclear progress, growing missile arsenal and network of extremist militia groups across the region is, or should be, the next alarming concern in geopolitics.”

The KSA is also considering inviting Israeli representative to a trilateral meeting during or after US president’s visit, though Saudi officials deny it. Israeli media is also reporting backchannel contacts with Riyadh. Despite KSA’s influence, Many Muslim states, including, Algeria, Iraq, Pakistan, may not follow Saudi decision; Israeli media reports backchannel contacts with Riyadh

According to Washington post, Joe Biden’s success in reunifying and revitalizing the alliance of Western democracies, even expanding the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to include Finland and Sweden, has given Washington its most dynamic international leadership role in decades. Now Biden is going to try to do the same in the Middle East.

Unlike its smaller neighbours, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which normalized relations with Israel in the Abraham Accords, Saudi Arabia needs meaningful concessions on the Palestinians to take any major diplomatic steps.

Noted commentator Bruce Riedel said Saudi Arabia has taken a complex approach to the recognition of Israel by several Arab countries in the Abraham Accords. It has a long history of clandestine cooperation with Israel against mutual enemies. Recently, it has said public recognition of Israel will come only if there is movement to resolve the Palestinian conflict and create a two-state solution. But the kingdom has tolerated and even abetted the development of diplomatic and military ties between some of its closest allies and Israel.

Reidel said Israel values its covert contacts with the Saudis but craves public recognition as the path to ending its isolation in the Islamic world. Yet it overestimates Riyadh’s clout. Several Muslim countries would not follow the Saudis’ lead on normalization of relations with Israel: Algeria (the largest Arab and African country), Iraq (which just recently criminalized any contact with Israel), and Pakistan (the only Muslim state with nuclear weapons). But the Israelis still chase the Saudis.

Clandestine cooperation between the Saudis and Israelis dates to the early 1960s, when both supported the Royalists in Yemen against the Egyptian and Soviet-backed Republican government in Sana’a. Their intelligence services coordinated the delivery of weapons and expertise to the Royalists, who were based in Saudi Arabia. The chiefs of the Mossad and Saudi intelligence met at the Dorchester Hotel in London on one occasion. The 1993 Oslo agreement facilitated more behind-the-scenes contacts.

Iran and its allies like Hezbollah and the Houthis now form the common foe. Saudi Arabia’s Gulf allies Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates recognized Israel in 2020, largely to get the Saudis’ support against Iran. The Saudis have allowed direct flights from Tel Aviv to Manama, Abu Dhabi and Dubai crossing over their territory.

Bahrain is a particularly important country for Saudi Arabia. The two countries are connected by the 15-mile-long King Fahd causeway, Bahrain’s only access to the mainland. If the Saudis did not want Bahrain to recognize Israel and exchange ambassadors, they could have easily done so. Manama will not cross Riyadh. So the Saudis have supported the Bahraini decision to make peace with Israel.

According to Israeli newspaper Haaretz, An unprecedented meeting could happen as soon as this month, according to a report citing one of Mohammed bin Salman's advisers. In a possible sign that Saudi Arabia may be willing to publicly acknowledge its warming under-the-table ties with Israel, a senior Saudi official has said that the Kingdom is mulling the possibility of inviting an Israeli representative to attend US President Joe Biden’s upcoming visit to Jeddah.

Citing a person described as an unnamed advisor to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Israel news site Ynet reported that the matter is currently under consideration by American, Saudi and Israeli officials, and that the visit could take place either during or following Biden’s visit.

Israeli officials see the possible meeting in Riyadh as a chance to negotiate smaller concessions, such as flyover rights, Ynet reported. “The fact that President Biden visits Israel and from here will fly directly to Saudi Arabia encapsulates a lot of the dynamics that have been evolving over the last months,” an Israeli official said.

Both Israel and Saudi Arabia oppose moves by Washington to revive the nuclear deal with Tehran. Biden will visit the Saudi port city of Jeddah on July 15 to meet with King Salman and Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman. President Donald Trump had close relations with the Saudis, but those ties have frayed since Biden took office, with his administration taking a harder line on Riyadh’s human rights record.