NA dissolution: now or after two months?

ISLAMABAD: Dissolution of the National Assembly is most likely as none of the top leaders of the ruling coalition is in favour of withdrawing the oil subsidy, fearing a massive price hike.

Mian Nawaz Sharif, Asif Ali Zardari and Maulana Fazlur Rehman all agree that withdrawing oil subsidy would increase sufferings of masses. They also believe that in case of withdrawal of the subsidy, there would be huge price-hike, which would mean high political cost for the ruling parties.

The PMLN and JUIF are prepared for immediate dissolution of the National Assembly. However, Asif Zardari wants elections only after adoption of electoral reforms by the parliament.

Differences amongst the ruling allies about immediate dissolution of the National Assembly seem obvious. Asif Zardari is the biggest hurdle while the PMLN knows that the political cost of continuation of the present government without withdrawing the oil subsidy would be too heavy for the N-League.

Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah has already said that the political cost of the difficult decisions had to be equally shared by all the allies. He said that the PMLN would not bear that cost alone.

The PMLN could take the risk of making difficult decisions provided it is given the surety that the present government would rule till August 2023. However, because of some important factors, not being discussed by the party in public, the PMLN sees elections in September or October this year.

The present government’s continuation till July-August this year suits Zardari, but not the Sharifs, who believe that in case of difficult decisions, Shehbaz Sharif needs over a year-long rule and not of few months to deliver in order to subside the negative effects of difficult decisions on people.

Indecisiveness and delay of each moment has a heavy cost for Pakistan as the country’s foreign exchange reserves are fast depleting, besides unending fall of Pak rupee value against the US dollar.

Pakistan’s economy direly needs IMF support to escape a possible default. Delay in decision making on the part of prime minister is furthering devaluation of the Pak rupees besides hurting the economy.