First COVID-19 wave expected to peak by end of July, start of August: experts

Around 50 per cent of Pakistan’s total number of COVID-19 cases are concentrated in Karachi and Lahore, and if appropriate measures are not taken by the authorities and the people to control the spread of the disease, there could be more than 300 deaths on a daily basis in the country from July 8 and to August 4, national and international experts have warned.

“According to the Institute of Health Metrics Evaluation, University of Washington, USA, if immediate steps are not taken by the Pakistani authorities to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in the country, there could be over 300 deaths on a daily basis in the country by July 8, and there could be 13,000 deaths in the country by start of August 2020 when this disease would peak in the country,” said Dr Sameen Siddiqi, head of community health services at Aga Khan University, while speaking at an online seminar on Saturday night.

The webinar or online seminar titled ‘WHO’s alert on COVID-19: Myth or Reality’ was organised by the Habib Public School Alumni Association (HPSAA). It was addressed by Pakistani and international experts, including Dr Syed Nasir Hussain, director of the Infection Prevention Program at the Henry Ford Macamb Hospital, Michigan USA; Dr Imran Sharif, assistant professor of edicine from the Wayne State University Arizona; eminent Pakistani gastroenterologist Dr Saad Khalid Niaz; Dr Shahjehan Katpar, and Dean faculty of dentistry at the Dow University of Health Sciences (DUHS). The session was moderated by Dr Hussain Mehdi Kazmi.

In his detailed presentation, Dr Sameen Siddiqi from the AKU said the number of cases in Pakistan started to rise during the Eid days when lockdown restrictions were eased. The doctor added that now the situation was such that according to estimates, the number of COVID-19 cases could be five to 10 times higher than the reported cases.

“So if we have 100,000 reported cases, the actual number of cases could be five to 10 times higher, which means that there could be five hundred thousand to one million people infected with COVID-19 in Pakistan at the moment. The number of reported cases is also low because we are doing a lesser number of tests.”

Dr Siddiqi said the OCIVD-19 situation would almost be the same in four South Asian countries—Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Afghanistan—somewhere between July and August 2020.

Dr Siddiqi warned that apart from 13,000 likely reported deaths due to COVID-19 in Pakistan by the start of August 2020, if immediate steps were not taken as recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO) and other panels of experts, there could be a large number of unreported deaths due to COVID-19 due to lack of testing, people unwilling to go to hospitals and absence of space at the hospitals in the country as the number of cases would be very high.

“COVID-19 is peaking in Pakistan, but more worrisome is that it could have a double peak it had in Iran and Saudi Arabia. The COVID-19 crisis can be blunted if not controlled by carrying out some important interventions, which include increasing public awareness, implementing selective lockdowns and other interventions,” he added.

Dr Syed Nasir Hussain said Pakistan should follow the recommendations of WHO which was highly concerned about the spread of COVID-19 in the country, saying as per WHO recommendations there should be a two-week lockdown followed by ease and then again a similar lockdown to break the chain.

Dr Saad Khalid Niaz called for smart governance and enhancing public awareness, saying people should be guided about this viral infection and how they could they remain safe by adopting precautionary measures. He added that if people were apprised of the benefits of a healthy lifestyle and precautionary measures, it would prevent a lot of people from catching the COVID-19.

Deploring that healthcare providers were highly demoralised in Pakistan due to harassment, accusations, incidents of manhandling and violence as well as absence of any encouragement, he said that if this issue was not tackled on an urgent basis, there would be nobody left to take care of the growing number of patients in Pakistan.

Dr Imran Sharif spoke in detail about the progress of disease and its manifestation in the United States, and the treatment therapies being used in the most developed nation of the world. He said there was no proven treatment or medicine available so far, including various medicines and therapies being used on an experimental basis, to treat COVID-19.

Several other local and foreign experts also spoke on the occasion and called for learning from other countries’ experiences to reduce mortality and prevent further meltdown of the economy in the country.