MUNICH: Since 1947, relations between India and Pakistan have been through many high and low periods, but recent clashes could exacerbate matters and lead to a full-blown military conflict between the two nuclear-powered nations, as per the Munich Security Report 2020, foreign media reported on Tuesday.
The report cited that in the event of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan, a death toll as high as 50-125 million people could be inevitable by 2025. As per the report, tensions between the main powers in the region are still active, namely India, Pakistan, and increasingly also China. "With India having completed its nuclear triad and Pakistan intending to do so, the risk of a regional nuclear arms race adds another delicate component to a worsening security situation," the report stated. The report also takes into consideration the security situation in Afghanistan, which remains volatile to this day as well as the Pulwama attack which took place on February 14, 2019. The resulting escalation of tensions between India and Pakistan led to military exchanges between the two countries. "In this strained situation, any attack committed by the Kashmiri insurgency bears the risk of escalation, culminating into a military confrontation between the two nuclear-armed powers," the report stated.
The report, after assuming that India and Pakistan have a minimum of 100 and 150 strategic nuclear weapons, stated that a nuclear war between the two countries will deliver 15 to 100 kilotons of N-warheads and result in 16-36 million tons of black carbon smoke being released. This would result in a 20-35pc decline in surface sunlight, 15-30 per cent decline in productivity on land and 5-15 per cent in oceans, with 50-125 million immediate deaths.
Earlier in October last year, a study by the University of Colorado Boulder and Rutgers University has said an India and Pakistan nuclear war could span for less than a week and "kill 50-125 million people". The report said the death toll would be more than World War-II. "It might also plunge the entire planet into a severe cold spell, possibly with temperatures not seen since the last Ice Age," it asserted.
