Press ‘pause’ for talks

The world’s two great powers, the US and China, do not see eye to eye on many things. It was, therefore, a pleasant development that both had agreed to sponsor a Pakistani push for peace talks between the Afghan Taliban and the government in Kabul. Today, that brief encounter looks like a dream. The caretaker and his staff in the villa hosting the talks in scenic Murree are unlikely to see those guests any time soon.
The backslide started with the dramatic news of Mullah Omar’s death and the ensuing power struggle among the feuding mullahs. If Omar died in 2013 as claimed by Kabul, this struggle must have been going on for some time now. Curiously, the important actors – whether Afghan or otherwise – kept the whole thing under wraps. It seems though that the pressure of taking the talks forward was too great to keep the Omar myth alive.
Some Afghans claim that the news of Omar’s death was shared by Islamabad with Kabul, letting the Afghan side make the announcement. If this version is true, one wonders why the Afghan leadership, which used to claim Mullah Omar was in Pakistan, kept quiet about his dying in this country. In retrospect, they might have reduced the ‘Omar in Pakistan’ refrain after Karzai’s retirement, hoping it would be deduced that Omar was no longer alive.
Citizens are entitled to question the authorities of their respective states about reasons that led to a cover-up of the news of the death of Mullah Omar. Why did they wait for two years before making such an important announcement? The same question can be asked from the United States which is way ahead in breaking news like Osama’s death or the repeated news of the death of Jalaluddin Haqqani.
Indeed all three countries owe it to their citizens to explain the hush-up. Not because it might have helped untie the Afghan knot but on account of transparency. Governments should have no right to withhold information about the death of individuals that have deep influence over the course of events of national and international significance.
The Taliban are equally to blame for hushing up the news of Omar’s death. There are claims and counter-claims over the location and circumstances of his passing. The family claims he never left Afghanistan. There is similar confusion about the whereabouts of the mullahs contending to inherit the mantle of leadership.
Pakistan’s efforts to broker peace in Afghanistan bring back memories of similar attempts in the 1990s to reconcile the various factions of the Afghan mujahideen following the withdrawal of Soviet troops. Nawaz Sharif was in the PM House then as now, and tried his utmost to encourage the Afghan resistance leaders to reach an agreement on a political setup post Soviet occupation.
Sharif had accompanied the leaders of Afghan factions to Saudi Arabia and Iran to get the blessings of their leaders as witnesses to the intra-Afghan peace accords. It was extremely difficult to reach a power-sharing arrangement and whatever was agreed to was not respected. That helped the Soviet protégé Najibullah prolong his rule in Kabul while mujahideen groups and warlords controlled the countryside.
While Nawaz Sharif is in his third prime ministerial tenure, all other actors have changed. The mujahideen factions took power in turns till Jamiat Islami leader Burhanuddin Rabbani refused to hand over and Hekmatyar destroyed half of Kabul through rocket fire. Najibullah took refuge in the UN compound in Kabul as the country became increasingly anarchic. This was the background to the rise of Mullah Omar and his Taliban.
Pakistan’s detractors have been overgenerous in claiming that the Taliban movement was a Pakistani creation to pursue its strategic designs. Ask any Pakistani intelligence officer or diplomat having dealt with Taliban how much effective influence Islamabad had over the Taliban leaders, particularly Mullah Omar. Their standard answer is: very little. Whether it was about girls’ education or the Bamiyan statues of Buddha or expelling Osama bin Laden at the peril of risking their Islamic Emirate, the answer was always a curt ‘no’.
Given this history it was perplexing that the US, the Kabul government or China felt strongly that Pakistan could ‘deliver’ the Taliban leadership for peace talks. Now that Mullah Omar is dead and a power struggle has begun between various factions including the family of Omar, hopes for a forward movement in the Afghan talks are giving place to a new feeling of despair.
Mullah Akhtar Mansour, who is being dubbed as Pakistan’s choice, has been quick to glorify jihad and run down peace efforts. The message to all whom it may concern is that the path to peace is as hazardous as before.
I am reminded of the sad conclusion made by a veteran Afghan hand years ago that probably still holds true: the Taliban will never negotiate. The subtext: if they do negotiate, it would be more for form than substance.
Email: saeed.saeedk@gmail.com