Understanding the Modi wave

In the run up to the mammoth electoral exercise in India that spanned well over a month, it was largely presumed that Narendra Modi would be able to return to power – albeit with a thin majority.

Political pundits considered the BJP-led coalition to be a real possibility, given the massive failure of the Congress to put together a coherent anti-BJP message that went beyond seeing PM Modi out of office, and the lack of political acumen in forming a strong political alliance capable of taking on the juggernaut that was BJP.

In the aftermath of the Pulwama fiasco, as the claims of the BJP government came in for a great deal of questioning and ‘political advantage’ that the ruling party reaped from tension-packed relationship with Pakistan was neutralized, there was even the talk of Modi being replaced by a more acceptable consensual candidate in the event of the BJP-led coalition making it to New Delhi. But that was not to be.

Given the wide margin of victory, the results of the Indian polls have taken all by surprise. The BJP repeated the sweep of 2014 elections in a more spectacular fashion. Its slogan of “ab ki baar, teen sau par” coined as a political ideal became a reality as the party won around 350 seats in an assembly of 543. The Indian National Congress, India’s grand old party, could barely improve upon its 2014 tally of seats and suffered the second most humiliating defeat in electoral history.

There are different approaches to look at what has transpired in India. It was not an ordinary election and any attempt to understand its dynamics within the framework of a political contest by the rival parties vying for power will be too simplistic. Modi’s landslide victory can be explained by the potency of his message that resonated with the electorate. He carefully combined Hindutva, nationalism and a promise of welfare for the poor to fashion his ‘idea of India.’ His message had coherence and purpose that played upon the toxic blend of ‘fear’ and ‘otherisation’ to rally his voters and energise his support base.

Though he rode into New Delhi on the back of a promise of ‘inclusive development’ in 2014, he appealed to the electorate on the issues of nationalism, security and saffron ideology this time round, slogans that indirectly challenged the secular identity of India. The addition of the word ‘chowkidar’ to his Twitter handle had political symbolism written all over it. At the same time, he was shrewd enough to appease the poor with a promise of welfare schemes.

The Indian elections were more of a referendum on PM Modi as a leader. The BJP electoral strategy presented him as a strong and decisive leader who had the answers to the problems facing the people. “Every vote you cast will come directly to me”, thundered Modi at political rallies in his passionate appeals to his supporters to vote for the BJP candidates. It was for this reason that the whole electoral campaign was woven around the personality of the prime minister and his ‘aura and oratory skills’. When the Congress made him the pivot of its relentless attacks in an attempt to frame him in corruption scandals such as Rafale, they were aware of what they were aiming at. However, the allegations of corruption, and unemployment failed to dent his popularity.

In what could be termed as a clash of ideologies, Modi successfully ushered in the BJP as a champion of what he termed as ‘the birth of a new India.’ He gradually cornered the Congress by painting it as the party of the elites dominated by a political dynasty that was estranged from the popular pulse. This attack on the ideological foundations of the Congress was accompanied by a successful effort to boost his pro-poor credentials epitomized by the ‘son of the soil’ formulation. The establishment of the BJP as a central pillar of Indian politics owes itself to Modi’s leadership.

The Indian polls presented a sharp contrast between the BJP and the Congress in terms of the narrative and the leadership and the difference could not be starker. The Congress’ political campaign focused on attacking PM Modi and did not offer any counter-narrative to the saffron juggernaut. Rahul Gandhi, the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, failed to fire popular imagination. In his public appearances, he appeared lacklustre and clueless, lacking in the political robustness needed to dethrone an entrenched political rival. Rahul’s inability to enter into electoral alliances with likeminded parties also shows his lack of political shrewdness, which served a huge blow to the Congress.

The humiliating defeat Congress suffered at the hands of PM Modi is a damning indictment of how the party has been run. The poll outcome, though distressing, also presents an opportunity to the party stalwarts to reinvent the Congress and refashion its message.

The spectacular rise of the BJP is also in sync with the increasing trend of Far-Right politics in the world. The failure of capitalistic elites in responding to the aspirations of the people is at the heart of their gradual marginalisation. The traditional political elite across Europe and North America has been equated with greed, exploitation and the maintenance of the status quo. The financial crisis that gripped the world in 2008 resulted in the loss of millions of jobs, and was said to be the work of a tiny elite that was more concerned with their own profits and rent-seeking to the total disregard of the needs of the teeming millions.

The meteoric rise of Donald Trump explains the intellectual poverty of the traditional political parties in offering a programme of radical change. The era of popular nationalism, which is exclusivist, religiously inspired and narrow-minded in its orientation, is here to stay unless the mainstream parties come up with a political narrative that presents bold solutions to the raging problems.

The second landslide victory of the right-wing, saffron-clad BJP in India is yet another reminder, if any was needed, that the traditional political elite in India has yet to wake up to the gravity of challenge. Till then, we need to learn to live with the behemoth that is the Far Right with all its ugliness.

The writer, a Chevening scholar, is

studying International Journalism at the University of Sussex.

Email: amanatchpk@gmail.com

Twitter: @Amanat222