Can PPP recover from its worst crisis?

It took Pakistan People’s Party, founded by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, 40 years to lose the popular base and be relegated to the third position - far behind Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf. What led to this disastrous situation? What is the way forward?
PPP has been completely wiped out from Gilgit-Baltistan in the recently held elections; it could win only one seat as compared to 11 in 2009. The results in the local bodies elections in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtoonkhwa were not very different. What happened in the cantonment boards elections is also well known. In the last two years the party has not won any by-election except in Sindh.
What is going on within PPP since the assassination of Ms Benazir Bhutto in 2007 also needs to be analysed. True, PPP won the 2008 elections but not convincingly. The party could not recover from the great loss of Benazir. The PPP Central Executive Committee, CEC, which met soon after her assassination in Larkhana took the decision in “haste” by nominating Asif Ali Zardari as co-chairman. It would have been far better if the CEC had elected Makhdoom Amin Fahim, senior vice-chairman as acting chairman and waited for BB’s children to become politically mature enough to lead the party.
Mr Zardari, being a smart mover, succeeded in taking control of the party and consolidated his hold over the party. PPP got the best chance to revive itself during its five-year tenure but Mr Zardari blew his chances, beginning by delaying the decision to restore the judges of the superior courts.
Thus, the PPP lost the first two years of its government by confronting the revival of independent judiciary. As a result the cordial relations between PPP and PML(N) became tense. In the end when the judges were restored the PPP, which was in the forefront of the lawyers’ movement, got no credit for it and the entire credit went to Nawaz Sharif.
No wonder then that Mr Zardari and the PPP had to face a hostile judiciary and as a result lost its prime minister, Yusuf Raza Gilani. A close aide of Mr Gilani told this writer that Mr Gilani wanted to restore the judges in his first speech in the National Assembly, but was stopped by the party leadership.
Although Mr Zardari handed over all presidential powers to Parliament, but for all practical purposes it was the Presidency that called the shots during the PPP rule. Both Mr Gilani and Raja Pervez Ashraf, who replaced Gilani as PM, know well that the power under PPP rule belonged to the Presidency.
PPP’s record of governance remained poor and except for Benazir Income Support Programme, no major initiative was launched which could have attracted the masses. Their record in legislation, however, was much better and it gave more independence to Parliament.
Mr Zardari’s relationship with the establishment got tense twice; first on the Kerry Lugar Bill and again on the Memogate. The Abbottabad episode further aggravated the situation and even full extension to former army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani could not heal the wounds.
As a result of poor governance, the Taliban threat and waning of influence in Punjab the PPP suffered the worst defeat in the 2013 elections from which it has not recovered yet.Bilawal Bhutto Zardar launched into politics at a time when the PPP was not in a good position. In the last two years, there have been at least three occasions when Bilawal was sidelined and silenced. Mr Zardari’s biggest political mistake was not to challenge Nawaz. He even stopped Bilawal from challenging PML (N) in Punjab.
The biggest beneficiary of Mr Zardari’s politics was not Nawaz but Imran Khan and his PTI. Imran took advantage of PPP’s silent support to PML(N), particularly in Punjab. Thus, Bilawal was left with no option but to go back to London, as he too felt powerless in the party.
For the first time PPP not only lost the seats but also vote percentage. PTI and Imran filled the vacuum created by PPP’s flawed policies. Imran’s other advantage was his “clean image”.
I am not sure whether Zardari and Bilawal together would be able to revive the party without change in their style of politics.
Mr Zardari’s announcement that Bilawal is not mature enough for politics has surprised many party leaders. It came after his fiery speech in Karachi and his announcement that he would lead the campaign against PML (N) in Punjab on the occasion of PPP’s Foundation Day. Mr Zardari was put in an embarrassing position when Bilawal did not attend that function.
First, it was said that he is not keeping good health and is under treatment. Then, it was said he is completing his education and the last excuse was that he was not politically mature enough.
Bilawal, unlike his grandfather, grandmother and mother, has a huge challenge ahead. The biggest mistake committed by the elder Bhutto was losing support of politically committed leaders like J.A.Rahim, Dr. Mubashir Hasan, Meraj Mohammad Khan, Mahmood Ali Kasuri and Rasul Bux Talpur and after the fall of Bhutto, the remaining lot either ditched him or failed in saving their leader.
Benazir Bhutto got rid of “political uncles,” whom her mother Begum Nusarat Bhutto often suspected of having a role in Bhutto’s execution or not doing enough to save him.
Murtaza Bhutto’s murder remains a deep-rooted conspiracy just like Benazir’s murder. Benazir once told me about the “mystery” of Murtaza’s murder and how she was misguided about his murder probe by police and other intelligence agencies.
If Bilawal really wants to convert PPP into people’s power he has to revive PPP’s ideology, restoring the clean image of the party leadership, forcing the Sindh government to deliver and bringing committed workers back into the party.
It would be better if Mr Zardari took a back seat and let his son start taking decision on his own.Sindh could be the barometer of Bilawal’s political maturity. If elections are held on time in 2018, the young chairman has enough time to organise the party and improve the performance of Sindh government to regain some of the lost popularity.
The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.