On the home front

Foreign affairs can at times offer government leaders a respite from thorny domestic issues – but not for long. After wisely handling the showdown with India, Imran Khan is back to the pressing national challenges.

The PTI government continues to face the uphill task of turning around the economy, particularly on issues of revenue shortfalls, declining investments and crippling debt liabilities. Yet, it is prone to diverting the public’s attention by crossing swords with the two major opposition parties, in the name of accountability and recovering their looted billions.

It would have been more appropriate if the federal government had allowed the process of accountability proceed without passing public judgements of its own. That not being the case, PML-N and PPP leaders are trying to work out a common defence to the double onslaught by the government and the NAB.

Young Bilawal’s full blooded tirade against the ongoing accountability process, peppered with some muscle flexing by the jiyalas, has succeeded in attracting attention across the country. He has also announced a train march to pressurize the government so as not to intimidate the PPP government in Sindh. Just as the PML-N is wilting under the pressure of corruption cases, Bilawal has entered the scene by raising the stakes.

The PPP has a tradition of resisting the establishment. Bilawal represents the third generation of the Bhutto clan to take on the powerful. It began over half a century ago when Z A Bhutto became disenchanted with his mentor Ayub Khan following the 1965 war with India – and more so after the Tashkent summit in January, 1966.

Altaf Gauhar among others lifted the veil on that episode in his book, ‘Ayub Khan – Pakistan’s First Military Ruler’, notably in its chapters narrating how Bhutto had persuaded Ayub to undertake Operation Gibraltar to foment an uprising in Kashmir, leading to the 1965 Pakistan-India war. In a detailed account of events following the Tashkent Declaration in January, 1966 Guahar recalled that while student protests against the Tashkent Declaration gathered momentum in Lahore and other cities, rumours went rife about “grave differences between Ayub and Bhutto”.

Ayub had informed Bhutto of being relieved but the latter manoeuvred to gain time by pleading “that his immediate exit would only encourage the agitation…Ayub agreed.” Bhutto made guarded statements in support of the Tashkent Declaration as promised to Ayub but also began telling stories which were damaging to Ayub.

Ayub would finally remove him as foreign minister in June, 1966 after the Tashkent agitation had subsided. However, according to the author, Bhutto had used that period to “build himself a popular base”. He had a stroke of luck when Ayub decided against accompanying the visiting Communist Party leader Liu Shaoqhi to Lahore. Bhutto went instead and received the Chinese leader amidst a rousing welcome in Lahore.

Benazir Bhutto took on her father’s mantle following his execution in 1979 and suffered incarceration under Zia as her father had done under Ayub. She demonstrated a remarkable degree of realpolitik once in power following Zia’s death in 1988. Having been removed from office through the joint action of Gen Aslam Beg and President Ishaq Khan in 1990, she fought back and returned to power with the establishment’s help in 1993.

BB’s removal in 1996, self-exile to avoid corruption cases, struggle against Musharraf and return after the NRO in 2007, her brutal assassination and Zardari taking power are still fresh in many people’s minds. The PTI is all set to demonstrate that like the Sharif family, they will go to any length to hold the Zardari clan to accountability. Bilawal himself is not immune from the process and hence his step to pick up the gauntlet.

The PTI’s leading voices have shown a kneejerk reaction by ridiculing Bilawal’s warnings when the contest has entered a more gruelling pace. As we watch and wait for further developments in the travails of the two opposition clans, the PTI government has completed seven months in office still looking for ways to launch its promised housing and mass employment projects.

The country may be abuzz with speculation over the future of Pakistan’s two political dynasties but that does not make Imran Khan’s uphill task any less daunting. His major achievement thus far has been to avoid a default on foreign debt payments via massive borrowing from Saudi Arabia, China and the UAE.

Imran’s good intentions and austerity measures have failed to lift the economy. New investments from Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Europe will have a gestation period to become productive. So will the exploitation of any new discoveries of oil and gas. An agreement with the IMF that could have stabilised the financial crisis is still under negotiation. The government is anxious for some drastic measures to significantly raise tax revenues. Attacks on the Federal Bureau of Revenue only highlight the government’s helplessness.

The vexing question before the government is how to lift tax revenues without rattling the market sentiment. A possible outcome might be the introduction of a new administration to link tax liabilities to the data that might be accessible to the government. A minor step to encourage economic activities has been taken by terminating the withholding tax on bank transactions. A lot more needs to be done to restore confidence among potential investors – and the sooner the better so as to improve the country’s economic outlook.

The PTI is not immune from corruption cases. Its virulent posturing against other politicians’ misdeeds is no substitute for sound economic policies.

Email: saeed.saeedk@gmail.com