As India heads to the polls

The countdown to the Indian general election has begun, with polls to be conducted in seven stages beginning on April 11 and ending on May 19. At stake are 543 seats of the lower house, the Lok Sabha, that elects the country’s prime minister.

The election provides Indian voters an opportunity to judge the Modi government’s performance. With unemployment reaching levels not seen since the 1970s and a severe crisis in the farming sector, NDA, the ruling alliance led by Modi’s BJP is facing difficulties in retaining the clear majority it has enjoyed for five years.

But Modi had a plan. Stung by setbacks in the recently-held state elections, he has managed, at least for now, to divert the voters’ attention to terrorism – especially by using the Pulwama incident to provoke a showdown with Pakistan. The world’s leading news agencies are reporting that Modi is likely to benefit from tensions with Pakistan. Reports from India suggest that the ruling party might gain seats from the Modi-engineered warlike situation, which could fill the gap to reach a parliamentary majority. By the same token, the main opposition party Congress led by Rahul Gandhi, would fail to beat the ruling party.

Modi’s plan is not without glitches. The news of India’s air strike near Balakot, followed by a skirmish with the PAF, was so alarming that global big powers intervened immediately to ward off the spectre of a nuclear showdown between Pakistan and India. Possible scenarios evoked in the global media referred to nuclear exchanges leading to millions of casualties in the two countries, rendering vast areas unfit for cultivation, and spreading radioactivity beyond the region, with horrendous consequences.

It may be reasonable to assume that no one wants a nuclear war. So what was the scare all about? The air war ended abruptly for well-known reasons but a war of nerves continues through war-mongering, claims and counterclaims. A relentless diplomatic and propaganda campaign goes on to use Pulwama to rally international support against Pakistan for inaction against terror networks.

The BJP remains in denial about the Kashmiri people’s struggle against Indian occupation. It is not even willing to acknowledge that young Kashmiris are willing to lay their lives against Indian brutalities, conveniently heaping the blame on militant organisations in Pakistan. Some of India’s actions remain surrounded by fog. Circumstantial evidence suggests that Pulwama was a tragedy the Indian government was not trying to stop but rather waiting to happen.

Once the news of 44 reserve police deaths was confirmed, a rather prepared plan was launched that included the recall of India’s high commissioner in Islamabad, cancellation of Pakistan’s MFN status and further tightening of visas for Pakistanis. There were moves to isolate Pakistan internationally, including by obtaining statements, notably one from the US national security adviser, supporting India’s right to act in self defence against terrorists.

Accounts of what India did by way of a retaliatory air strike on February 26 vary. Were the Indian pilots who dropped their bombs short of Balakot under instructions to avoid any major damage so as not to provoke Pakistan into a counter-strike, or did they drop their payload to avoid an encounter with the oncoming PAF fighters? Either way, Modi was not as much interested in war that could spin out of control but rather in creating a war-like situation to arouse nationalist feelings to secure firm support of the Hindu vote in the coming general election.

Having succeeded in whipping up a war psychosis among the Indian voters, Modi has moved on by accusing the opposition parties of helping the enemy by questioning the actions of India’s military. What could be a more effective way of appealing to the voters’ spirit of patriotism than questioning the loyalty of his opponents?

Credit goes to Pakistan’s civil and military leadership for effectively handling India’s provocations. Pakistani media also played a constructive role during the days of extreme tension. It is futile to expect Modi to drop his jingoism anytime soon. Pakistan, meanwhile, is setting its own house in order and the result can be seen in the government’s actions to curb fully, and once and for all, activities of militant entities, with the army chief asserting that the state alone can wage war. These steps may help meet the FATF’s requirements to avoid Pakistan’s inclusion in the black list.

Modi may win or lose but, thanks to the news media, people in India and elsewhere are well aware that the BJP leader has heightened tensions with Pakistan to incite nationalist fervour to lock the ‘Hindu’ vote. As he cries Pak wolf, the opposition parties cry ‘foul play’. In the midst of this point-scoring, some Indian voters might overlook that Modi is the same demagogue who promised development for all and millions of new jobs but proceeded instead to render their money worthless in a surgical strike of demonetisation.

It remains to be seen whether Modi can sustain the nationalist hype till election time. There have been statements from some of his critics suggesting that Modi may resort to another Pulwama-like situation to ensure his victory at the polls. Whether the Hindutva brigade wins or loses in the polls, let us remember one thing: the BJP leadership in opposition can be as toxic towards Pakistan as when it is in power. Who can forget their hold-up of the last Congress government so as to prevent any rapprochement with Pakistan?

Email: saeed.saeedk@gmail.com