Can MQM be revived?

It is still premature to say whether Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) will be able to revive or reinvent itself in the post-Aug-22, 2016 scenario with too many factions. But, one faction, which still sustains electoral support somehow, and is trying to regain some lost glory, seems to be the MQM-Pakistan. Can it sustain or improve itself would be the real test and challenge for the party.

Election 2018 was a turning point in the Muhajir politics. Even MQM's own circles admitted that their division pushed their voters towards the PTI or made them to stay home instead of going out for casting their votes.

Today, MQM, as a party, stands divided in different factions. Some efforts are under way to bring all on one platform, but personal egos and lack of credible leadership seem to be the major problems.

On last Sunday, some Muhajir leaders met on the sidelines of a valima reception of the son of Pak-Sarzameen Party (PSP) leader Shabber Qaimkhani, which includes Anis Qaimkhani, Dr Farooq Sattar, Dr Saleem Haider and others, but key leaders particularly those from the MQM-Pakistan were missing.

With the MQM-London faced an unofficial ban, which is unlikely to be lifted, the Muhajir vote bank is by and large divided and 2018 results showed changing trends. Now, it appears as if Muhajir supporters and voters have picked MQM-Pakistan as a possible alternative, while others have chosen parties like PTI.

The PTI is still not out of the race, and despite a defeat in PS-94, Landhi, it had retained all those NA seats which had fallen vacant in Karachi including that of its chairman Imran Khan. But, the party's organisational problems persist, which can hurt them badly in the local bodies elections.

The MQM-Pakistan faced multiple problems including the acceptability as a party among those who matter in our political engineering system. They are also facing challenges from within and from defunct MQM-London, whose boycott appeal did damage the MQM voters’ turnout.

Another factor which caused damage to the MQM vote bank in the last polls was the strong presence of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), which had caused problems for the PML-N in Punjab also. But, in the recent by-elections, the TLP was not allowed to contest the Election Commission of Pakistan, ECP.

Traditionally, MQM's strength has been local bodies and the PTI is far behind it when it comes to the local governments, and they might face challenges not only in Sindh against the MQM and the PPP, but also in Punjab, where the PML-N is still strong.

Interestingly, the MQM-P is also a strong coalition partner of the PTI government in Centre and Prime Minister Imran Khan, apparently looked satisfied with his relationship with the MQM despite reservations of his own party's Karachi and Sindh chapters.

The PM is expected to inaugurate a university in Hyderabad the next month. He also agreed in principle to allow MQM's offices de-sealed, which were sealed after August 22, 2016 on the condition that the party fulfilled legal requirements. He has also agreed on providing funds for some development schemes.

Sources said the PM recently told his own party leaders in Sindh including Governor Imran Ismail that he needs MQM-P as so far he had not received any complaint about them like their involvement in any militant or extortion activities. The MQM had also assured the PM and the PTI that it has no intention to quit or leave the government.

Governor Sindh Dr Imran Ismail is playing the role of a bridge between the MQM-P and the PTI, as the latter's Karachi chapter apparently has some reservations about the MQM. Federal Minister for Law Dr Farogh Nasim is said to be among the best members of Imran Khan’s cabinet. He is also a key figure in getting some of the other problems solved, which the party is facing including outside pressures particularly regarding MQM's missing persons. However, the MQM-P will have to wait for intelligence clearance.

With no relief in sight for the MQM-London or any MQM activities around its traditional headquarters like Nine-Zero, Khursheed Memorial Hall or even at Jinnah ground, MQM-P shifted and made its headquarter at Bahdurabad.

Many MQM-P leaders are still facing cases for their past role in the united MQM, like May 12, 2007 or Aug 22, 2016, money-laundering, which also led to the recent clampdown on its strong social service, Khidmat-e-Khalq Foundation. Beside, many cases pending against some of them for years after the NRO was declared illegal and cases were revived.

Unlike some other breakaway factions of the MQM like MQM-Haqiqi or Pak-Sarzameen Party (PSP), or the disgruntled party leaders like former mayor and senior leader, Dr Farooq Sattar, the MQM-P at least managed to get six National Assembly and 20 Sindh Assembly seats besides having control over KMC.

However, it appears as if the name MQM still haunts certain quarters, which, in the last two years, tried hard and pressurised first Dr Farooq Sattar and then Khalid Maqbool and Aamir Khan to merge the MQM with the PSP, and agreed on the third name, but could not succeed.

The events, which followed, also vindicated MQM-P position as it got some electoral support to win four NA seats from Karachi and two from Hyderabad compared with the PSP, led by Syed Mustafa Kamal and Anis Qaimkhani, which faced humiliating defeat in every constituency.

The PSP, which got huge publicity after Kamal's outburst against the MQM founder in the last three years, none of its candidates even came close to the winner in any contest. At least on the electoral front, it did not prove different from the MQM-H. Now, for the PSP too, the party's last chance would be local bodies.

The MQM-P with six MNAs and 20 MPAs, is now trying to make some headway through part of the coalition government of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf in Centre while having problems with the local PTI leadership, as the latter is also finding it difficult to make any real impact in urban Sindh.

The MQM-P is confident that its electoral strength may increase if the election tribunals give early verdicts on their pending petitions, at least on two seats.

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang.

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO