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May survives confidence vote

By AFP
January 17, 2019

LONDON: British Prime Minister Theresa May on Wednesday survived a no-confidence vote sparked by the crushing defeat of her Brexit deal just weeks before the UK leaves the European Union.

A stunning 24-hour span saw May on Tuesday dealt the heaviest drubbing by parliament in modern British political history -- 432 votes to 202 -- over the divorce terms she reached with Brussels.

She emerged victorious in parliament’s first no-confidence vote in a British government in 26 years on Wednesday by a 325-306 margin, a majority of 19. But it may have only been a pyrrhic victory for the hobbled but determined premier as she tries to steer the world’s fifth-biggest economy through its biggest crisis in a generation.

The opposition Labour Party could try to oust her government again in the hope of triggering snap elections before Britain’s scheduled March 29 Brexit date. And May herself is working on the tightest-possible deadline as Britain prepares to leave the bloc that for half a century defined its economic and political relations with the rest of the world.

She has promised to return to parliament on Monday with an alternative Brexit strategy devised through cross-party talks with the opposition. There is now an assumption among many European diplomats that Brexit will have to be delayed to avoid a potentially catastrophic "no-deal" breakup.

May notably refused to rule out the idea when quizzed about it in parliament earlier on Wednesday.Here are the three main scenarios now facing Britain while the clock ticks down to its scheduled departure from the European Union on March 29:

ANOTHER DEAL: May promised cross-party talks to try to find an alternative deal, beginning immediately on Wednesday night.

May intends to make a statement to the House of Commons on Monday, setting out a Plan B, and has said if necessary she will return to Brussels for talks with the European Union. But she has repeated that any deal must take Britain out of the EU, end uncontrolled EU migration and allow the country to sign independent trade deals.

The last two conditions would seem incompatible with continued membership of the EU´s single market and a customs union, advocated by the opposition Labour party. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn also refused to hold talks with May until she ruled out leaving the EU with no deal, something Downing Street refused, saying the only way to do this was to agree a deal.

EU leaders have said they are willing to negotiate further but have repeatedly said they do not want to reopen the Brexit deal agreed with May. "We must find solutions that are negotiable and command sufficient support in this House," the prime minister told MPs on Wednesday night.

NO DEAL: Britain is legally on track to leave the EU with or without a deal on March 29, unless it delays or stops the process.

A no-deal scenario threatens to trigger a recession in Britain and markedly slow the EU´s economic growth, as well as causing significant legal disruption. The world´s fifth-biggest economy could lose preferential access to its largest export market overnight, affecting every sector, leading to rising costs and disruption at British ports.

The government has conducted visible displays of its ramped-up no-deal preparations over the past few weeks. There is growing speculation in London and Brussels that it could seek to delay Brexit to avoid this scenario, although May has denied this.

SECOND REFERENDUM: EU supporters have been calling for another vote ever since the Leave campaign won by 52 to 48 percent in the 2016 referendum, and demands have stepped up in recent months.

There is no law keeping Britain from doing it all over again, but many question whether this would be democratic. May has warned another vote "would do irreparable damage to the integrity of our politics".

It also threatens to be just as divisive, with opinion polls showing the country is still split over the issue. A majority of MPs would have to support the idea and pass a law to hold the referendum, which would likely result in Brexit being delayed while the process took place.