Popularity test for trio

With the NA-246 by-election just 24 hours away, all the three main contenders — the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Jamaat-e-Islami — are anxiously waiting to test their popularity graph in Karachi in general and in this constituency in particular, but some of the decisions taken by the city administration and the Rangers may impact on the turnout.
Decision to impose Section 144, ban on pillion-ridding and condition for all citizens to carry their original CNICs are among the unprecedented security measures taken in the last 48 hours.
Considering the area belonging to the lower-middle class and middle class, ban on pillion-ridding in particular could cause problems to the common voters and the political parties will now have to arrange extra transport to bring voters to the polling stations.
It also appears that the second phase of targeted operation would start from the first week of May, which may include a massive operation for the recovery of illegal weapons. Thus, measures like Section 144 CrPc or ban on pillion-ridding could be extended or may be impose in phases.
Turnout always play an important role in any election, particularly in the by-election where normally it remains between 25 to 30 per cent, but the manner in which this election drew the media attention and brought top leaders, the parties are expecting turnout between 50 to 60 per cent. A big turnout suits all the three, as it will be a big test for them.
The past two weeks remained politically tense but except for one or two minor incidents the overall campaign remained peaceful and accommodative for each other — something healthy for the political atmosphere.
This by-election has its political importance and significance because its outcome would also determine the future political alignment in Karachi in the forthcoming local bodies’ elections.
It will also set direction for the future relationship and alliance between the PTI and JI, which are in coalition in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but could not reach an agreement in Karachi.
The leaders of both the parties have strong claims to this seat and the JI in particular was disappointed with the attitude of PTI leadership. They believe the PTI leaders should have understood the political dynamics of this election and keeping the past record should have supported its candidate, Rashid Naim.
The PTI, on the other hand, believes that its candidate Imran Ismail has a much better chance,as they believe the voters in this constituency are liberal and inclined towards it. Thus, its leadership too was disappointed over the JI’s rigidity.
But, this seat is the most prestigious for MQM, which holds the record of retaining it for 28 years and won all the major elections since 1988. But, it is also one constituency where the MQM got over 140,000 votes in 2013 and at the same time got 53,000 in 2002.
So, the MQM is hopeful of getting something between, which for them, would be enough to defeat its rivals. Thus, the MQM is confident that its candidate Kanwar Naveed would easily win.Any setback would be a major disaster for the party under the present circumstances when they are under pressure, particularly after March 11 raid at 90, which falls in this very constituency.
This election is also important for the PTI, as they remained untested since they got some 800,000 votes in Karachi in 2013 election including some 31,000 votes from NA-246.The PTI has two goals: First, they want to test its strength and whether those 31, votes are still intact; secondly, they want to prove that this vote never belonged to the JI and they did not get it because of the JI’s boycott.
Similarly, the JI also has lot of stakes in this constituency. Its leadership knows that it is neither 1970 when they used to win from this area, nor is it 1988 when they lost to the MQM.For the JI, this election is also a launching pad for the local bodies’ elections, and thirdly, like the PTI, they also want to test their own popularity and where they stand. Lastly, the JI also aims to teach a lesson to the PTI.
Victory to MQM may not be as bigger “breaking news” as perhaps, any upset. But, for the MQM itself victory will be an answer to many forces, political and non political.
The election campaign comes to an end, with all the three parties held rallies and corner meetings. All three are confident and hopeful and all the three have pledged that they would accept election results as they are satisfied with the security arrangements. Even security cameras have been installed by the Rangers, who have been given extraordinary powers both inside and outside the polling stations.
The three parties drew crowds in their public meetings and rallies, addressed by Altaf Hussain, Sirajul Haq and Imran Khan. So, with no complaints so far they will test their popularity.However, their campaign revolved more around accusations against each other rather than on the problems of the constituency, something which has disappointed many voters.
The MQM remained the prime target of both the PTI and JI. Both took credit for creating an atmosphere which enabled people to participate in the election rallies and meetings. Both believe that days of politics of fear is over and now people will cast their vote freely. All this indicates that they would all accept the outcome of April 23rd, elections.
So, without any “if and buts” let’s all hope for a peaceful polling without any fear despite that the elections are being held under Section 144 CrPc where not more than five persons would be allowed to assemble at the polling stations.
It’s a battle of nerves for Altaf Hussain, Imran Khan and Sirajul Haq and its outcome will certainly determine the political direction of Karachi and also of Sindh. So, all the best for all the three candidates and their party heads. Yet another good day for democracy!
The writer is senior analyst and columnist for GEO, The News and Jang.