Imran’s big political risk

The movement launched by Imran and Qadri, ostensibly to topple the PML-N government had all the trappings of a conspiracy if revelations made by General Aslam Mirza, Javed Hashmi and Shah Mahmood Qureshi’s brother are to be believed.
The architects of the movement chose to challenge the entire outcome of the 2013 general elections and assigned this role to Imran Khan, while Qadri was encouraged to rub in the notion of reforming the allegedly corrupt system as a sideshow. The movement ultimately fizzled out like a damp squib. Tahirul Qadri flew back to his adopted abode after admitting failure of his campaign, while Imran Khan continued with his peculiar stubbornness to hammer the rigging issue and raise the political temperature through public rallies across the country to put the government under pressure.
But it is quite obvious now that the government handled the issue with utmost tolerance and a vision to save the democratic system. In fact it blunted the edges of the sword used by Imran by readily agreeing to form the judicial commission at the beginning of his campaign and even wrote to the Supreme Court for the formation of the commission, which however did not materialise at the time due to some constitutional roadblocks but lifted the haze over the intentions of the government.
After an excruciating on and off dialogue on the TORs of the commission, it is really satisfying that both sides have been able to narrow down their differences on the issue and that the judicial commission has finally become a reality. For the time being at least it marks recommencement of saner politics in the country, with the PTI returning to parliament and expressing full faith in the judicial commission; though still using the epitaph of ‘fake’ for the assemblies.
The onus of proving the allegations that Imran has been bandying around about rigging in elections would now lie with Imran himself as the accuser. During his agitation on the streets he did not spare any state institution connected with the elections, state functionaries and even the former COAS and CJ whom he accused of having played a part in the rigging, besides hurling abuses at and accusing the biggest media channel of the country of connivance with those who had allegedly plotted the rigging.
Going by the developments that have taken place during the last six months and the facts that have come to light, it seems it will be almost impossible for him to establish the veracity of his claims. Hurling accusations in a public rally and providing concrete and sustainable evidence in a court of law are different ball games altogether. My feeling is that the architects of the anti-government campaign, if there were any, as well as Imran Khan did not do their homework properly when it came to ground realities and the legal and constitutional issues involved.
The ground realities are that the PTI candidates filed 58 election petitions with the elections tribunals and out of them 39 petitions have gone against the PTI with one in favour as of February 2015. Under Article 225 of the constitution and the Peoples Representative Act 1976 only the election tribunals are the legal entities to deal with complaints regarding rigging and irregularities committed in the elections. That was probably why the SC did not form the judicial commission when the government had initially made the request. It has now agreed to do so after the removal of legal impediments through the presidential ordinance for the formation of the commission.
First of all it would be difficult for Imran to explain why – if he believed the entire election was rigged – the PTI did not file petitions for all the constituencies. The fact that only 58 petitions were filed strongly indicated that the PTI agreed with the results of all other constituencies and that challenging the entire electoral exercise was clearly an afterthought.
If we look at the presidential ordinance, clause 9(2) says “The conduct of the inquiry and submission of its report and the exercise of its functions under this Ordinance by the Commission shall not prejudice in any manner whatsoever any pending elections petition relating to the General Elections 2013 or appeal arising there from or any orders passed in such petition or appeal or any proceedings thereof before any elections tribunal or court which shall all continue and be decided in accordance with the applicable law”.
This clearly means that the decisions given by the election tribunals will not be affected by the inquiry report and similarly appeals still pending with them would continue to be dealt with by them. With the majority of the petitions filed by PTI candidates having been decided against them by the tribunals and their authenticity standing, it would be next to impossible for the PTI to prove systematic rigging.
Another very cogent factor is that while most of the international observers and Fafen in their reports have pointed out certain irregularities and administrative inadequacies in the conduct of elections, none of them has pointed out any systematic rigging in the elections. Rigging and irregularities by individual candidates unfortunately has been a part of our culture.
Out of 411 electoral petitions the election tribunals have already decided 367, mostly on the basis of irregularities and breach of electoral rules committed by individual candidates. No decision of the tribunals has even hinted at the possibility of a systematic rigging. The aplomb with which the PML-N government has agreed to the formation of the judicial commission is also suggestive of the fact that had the party played a part in any organised effort to rig the elections, it would not have readily conceded to the demand of the PTI.
Imran Khan has taken a very big political risk by agitating and pushing for the formation of the judicial commission. If the findings of the inquiry turn out to be contrary to the allegations his credibility and political credentials will receive a big jolt. He will have to remain part of the assemblies that he has been calling fake and find it difficult to explain his role in fomenting the political crisis that greatly damaged Pakistan’s economy, tarnished the country’s image and resulted in the biggest ever diplomatic embarrassment for Pakistan when the visit of the Chinese president had to be cancelled due to the law and order situation created by the sit-ins in Islamabad.
However, it is important at the moment that both the PTI and the PML-N fully cooperate with the judicial commission. The government is assisting and facilitating the inquiry by the commission in line with its demands and requirements as determined by it so that it can complete its entrusted assignment within the stipulated time. It is hoped both sides will accept the findings of the commission ungrudgingly as promised by them and honour the commitments made in the agreement between them.
The writer is a freelance contributor.
Email: ashpak10@gmail.com