What makes 2018 polls distinct from 2013 elections

ISLAMABAD: A multitude of conspicuous phenomena and realities have hit the landscape, making the July 25 general elections distinct from the 2013 electoral clash, which may have a significant impact on the final results. Some of these peculiarities are voluntary political corollaries while others are forced and contrived to obtain a choice outcome. The most striking happening is that deposed Prime Minister and PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif and his heir apparent Maryam have been convicted by an accountability court and thus ousted from the election campaign of their party. Last time, the ex-premier was free to canvass for the PML-N across Pakistan. He was not as stressed and beleaguered as he has been over the past one year when his tribulations started surging.

Another reality is that Nawaz Sharif is ostricised from taking part in the electoral politics for being disqualified to contest the elections. Same happened to him in the 2002 polls when he was in exile in Saudi Arabia during Pervez Musharraf’s reign.

He was in Pakistan when the 2008 elections were held but he stayed away from the process. Though barred from vying for the public office, the PML-N campaign seems to be dominated by and revolves around Nawaz Sharif and his opponents are struggling to rout his party at the ballot and are locked in a “do or die” tug of war with it. From everywhere he is projecting his narrative – respect the vote. Nawaz Sharif’s absence from Pakistan due to his wife’s illness has rendered the PML-N’s election campaign lacklustre. It will be seen to what extent it will get a fillip when he and his daughter fly back from London on Friday. They will certainly be arrested on that day due to their conviction, and they have announced that they are returning to be jailed. Whether or not their imprisonment will produce dividends will be noticed in the days to come. But their return will at least give a message to their supporters that they are not afraid of prison.

Attempts have been allegedly made to corner and harass the PML-N with the NAB playing on the front foot. There are also cases in the superior courts being heard against some of its important leaders, who are sure to win the elections. In 2013, the PML-N was not confronted with such scenario. Another remarkable happening is that the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has, for the first time, got abundant “electables” who have switched to it from other parties. They were not available to it in 2013. It is immensely relying on their performance to get the next government. Also, the PTI enjoys the support that traditionally matters on such occasions.

However, in the previous elections the PTI was considered more popular than it is now. Unlike Nawaz Sharif, Imran Khan is totally free to run his election campaign, and there is no hounding of his contesting candidates. He has once again got the opportunity to show his mettle.

Yet another factor is the first formal jump of young blood, Bilawal, the scion of Bhuttos and Zardaris, in the electoral pitch. He has been able to independently campaign, but is haunted by the performance of the government (2008-2013) of his father, Asif Ali Zardari. This is his first election. He is the youngest among top politicians while his arch opponents – Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan – are very senior in age to him.

Since the 2013 polls, the PPP has been in a deep state of demoralisation due to its performance at the husting. Bilawal has still to pull his party out of this condition. However, the kind of post-election scenario perceived on the basis of expected results, the PPP may be an important player in the government making. The party under Bialwal is struggling but not out in the greater scheme of things to transpire. Asif Zardari is contesting a relatively safe National Assembly seat from his hometown with a specific objective of plunging in the race for the next prime minister. Being too young, Bilawal may not be his choice this time for this berth.

However, the investigation in the alleged fictitious bank accounts involving reported money laundering of billions of rupees, implicating Zardari and his closest friends, has fallen as a bombshell on the former president as well as the PPP. It will certainly impact their morale at this critical and in the days to come, Zardari could face more troubles on account of the new probe. However, unlike 2013, the PPP leaders do not face threats of terrorist attacks, which had handicapped them to freely campaign.

Another key development is the revival of the Mutahidda Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), an alliance of religious parties. It ruled Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) in 2002-2208 during Pervez Musharraf’s rule after winning the 2002 elections. It was also part of the then federal government. In the following polls in 2008 and 2013, the MMA stood fractured and failed to perform well. In the changed political situation, the JUI-F and Jamaat-e-Islami, the two main partners of the coalition, pushed for its restoration. Its electoral gain will confine chiefly to KP and Balochistan. The MMA will primarily challenge the PTI in KP. Then, there is the abrupt emergence of the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) to overwhelm the election scene in this province only. Its formation has driven away the mainstream national political parties from Balochistan and regionalised and provincialised the politics in this part. A predominant majority of the tribal chieftains and other “electables”, who always prefer to be on the right side of the powers that be and abhor any kind of heat, have joined the BAP.

They are mighty enough to win their own seats in their hometowns but lack appeal at the provincial level. As a consequence, the major political parties – PML-N, PTI and PPP - may have a small number of their candidates returning in the July 25 clash. Amid the heightened talk of a hung parliament to be thrown up by the fresh elections, the BAP may emerge as a key player in the construction of the next federal and Balochistan governments. It will be conveniently available to help foist a Sanjrani or a Bizenjo as the prime minister on the premise that its nominee preferably from Balochistan will alleviate the sense of deprivation prevailing in its province.

However, the BAP will only get whatever share it will be able to manage to secure from only 16 directly contested seats of the National Assembly. To say that the National Party of Hasil Bizenjo, Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party of Mehmood Achakzai and JUI-F stand wiped out due to the emergence of the BAP is a naïve approach as they will definitely clinch some seats in their areas of influence.

Another reality is the fragmentation of the MQM, which, under Altaf Hussain’s stranglehold, ruled Karachi with an iron hand for decades. Whether the supremo has been in Pakistan, or in London since 1992, he has been the single most driving force behind the MQM’s uninterrupted electoral gains through hook or crook.

The MQM for the first time is going to the polls without Altaf Hussain’s charisma and how will it perform is anybody's guess. However, without having strong leadership, the party has been to a great deal challenged by the PPP, PTI Jamaat-e-Islami, Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP) and PML-N as they are eyeing some federal and provincial seats from Karachi and Hyderabad.