A disastrous departure

The nuclear deal with Iran of 2015 was the signature diplomatic achievement of the last decade. It required years of negotiation between Iran, the US, the UK, France, Germany, China and Russia. It loosened ruinous international sanctions in return for an Iranian promise to limit its nuclear activities and allow inspections by international inspectors. The deal was a blow to hardliners in the US and Israel who were determined to declare war on Iran, as well as the conservative right-wing in Iran which had tried to weaken the government of reformist President Hussain Rouhani by portraying the deal as a sell-out. Now, by pulling the US out of the deal, President Donald Trump has endangered peace in the region. The most immediate impact will be a return of US sanctions in Iran. The severity of these sanctions borders on the criminal and will only hurt the people of Iran rather than its government. In the longer run, the collapse of this deal will affect US ties with the European Union. All the other countries that were part of the agreement have announced their intention to continue abiding by it. Trump’s presidency has been needlessly antagonistic to allies of the US, starting with his decision to pull out of the Paris accord on climate change, and now the sense of alienation will only deepen.

In Iran, the US decision will serve to empower hardliners. There are already calls from within the country for Iran to begin enriching uranium at previous levels, even though Rouhani’s government has urged caution. Should the response to Trump’s provocation lead to Iran restarting its nuclear programme, it could lead to a chain of events in the Middle East. First, Saudi Arabia may respond by developing its own nuclear programme – and ask for help from nuclear countries with whom it is close. Israel, whose prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been the primary driver of war with Iran and whose misleading presentation on Iran’s nuclear activities was meant to convince Trump to pull out of the deal, may even feel emboldened enough to invade the country. The presence of extreme hawks in the Trump administration like National Security Adviser John Bolton, who have pushed for war with Iran for almost two decades, means the possibility of the US itself taking military action cannot be ruled out. With one rash announcement, Trump has imperilled peace and shown the rest of the world that his country cannot be counted on to abide by international agreements. The world today is a significantly more dangerous place than it was yesterday.