‘No horse-trading’ PM’s smart move but …

Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif has made a smart move by initiating dialogue on horse-trading prior to the Senate election. He not only won appreciation from his main political rival — Imran Khan — but the presence of PTI in the conference of parliamentary heads has also eased the rising political tension over the issue. It remains to be seen if this will pave the way for the possible return of PTI to the National Assembly.
The PTI has already softened its stand on returning to the assemblies. Previously, they had linked their return to the Judicial Commission’s (JC) findings. Now, they are ready to return to the national and provincial assembly once the commission is constituted.
The question is why the PM is so concerned about horse-trading though the ruling PML-N is confident of getting all the 11 seats from the Punjab, and may not find it difficult to get the required number of seats from the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. So, why the PM came to the rescue of PTI, which feared losing one or two seats if the elections were held through the secret ballot.
Therefore, Imran extended his support to the government on 22nd Amendment before March 5. Will the PTI return to the National Assembly, in case its 36 votes were required? All this has made the situation more interesting and brought the two political rivals on one page for the second time after the terrorist attack on APS, Peshawar on December 16.
The government, which recently came under heavy criticism for appointing Barges Tahir as Governor Gilgit-Baltistan, succeeded in shifting the debate and defusing the tension, at least till the Senate election.
Whether abolishing the system of secret ballot reflects political bankruptcy of the parties or not, but the manner in which the PML-N and the prime minister took the initiative soon after the PTI Chairman Imran Khan expressed his fear of horse-trading and was not sure about his own MPAs.
Imran was the first politician who highlighted this issue after reports that his MPAs were getting huge offers. Some PTI leaders confirmed that if elections were held through the secret ballot, chances were that they might lose one if not two seats from the KP. They stand no chance in other assemblies and Islamabad.
But, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and PML-N’s other concern is the post-election scenario, when elections for chairman and deputy chairman will be held, most likely on March 15.
The PML-N knows it will not be getting enough seats to get its nominees elected as chairman and deputy chairman on its own. The PPP may still emerge as the strongest group and if it managed two or three surprise results from the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, the smaller parties’ bargaining position would get stronger, which will make the election more interesting.
As I have earlier said, Asif Ali Zardari is a shrewd chess player who perhaps is looking for a consensus with the Sharif on the post-March 5 elections.Nawaz Sharif has already held at least two meetings with Zardari in a bid to develop consensus on the Senate election and possibly for the top slot in the Senate.
In such a scenario, the PTI’s six or seven “votes” would get a lot of importance in a close fight if it did not stay away from the election of chairman and deputy chairman. The PTI can use its cards well, in case of elections on both seats. Boycott may not serve the purpose. They would be in a better position to get some of their demands accepted.
Federal Information Minister Pervaiz Rasheed, who himself is a candidate in the Senate election and is very likely to return in March 5 election, has admitted that the party would require the support of its allies to get its chairman and deputy chairman elected.
“We will discuss chairman and deputy chairman after March 5, depending on the party positions. We will certainly be in a much better position, but we’re still short of a clear majority,” he told this reporter.
The PM took this decision to check-horse-trading not because of fear that the party MPAs or MNAs might vote against us, but because he always wanted such an amendment,” he added.
“Do you remember, that in 1997, we were the one who brought anti-floor crossing law,” the minister said.
We could have benefited from the situation as the PTI is facing internal problems and could have lost some seats, but it would not have served democracy,” Pervaiz Rasheed said.
Political parties certainly have learnt few lessons, but the fact remains that it was the PML-N which allegedly used the horse-trading tactic in 1989 vote of no-confidence against the then Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.
The worst example was set in 1992 after the military operation against the MQM. For the first time, none of the two majority parties — the PPP and the MQM — despite having two-thirds majority, were in the government. Instead, Syed Muzaffar Hussain Shah became the chief minister, allegedly with the backing of establishment and forced change of loyalties.
Today, the PTI which has already committed a political blunder by resigning from the National Assembly and the Punjab and Sindh assemblies is now finding it in a difficult situation.
Imran and his team badly misread the political situation after August 2014 and thought the government would not last till the Senate election. Now, their “sitting or former” MNAs could not cast vote on Islamabad seats and due to internal differences they fear that in secret ballot they might lose one or two seats.
The PTI hardliners have already put Imran in a “no-win” position. It is because of emerging political scenario that he appreciated the government’s move to bring an amendment to check horse-trading. They are also coming close to an agreement on the judicial commission. Resumption of dialogue with the government itself showed that some progress has been made.
So, it is very important for the PTI to have a serious look at its political moves since last year. Had they been in Parliament, they would have been in a much better position and at the same time could have continued anti-government movement.
Whether or not Pakistan will be out of the World Cup after Sunday’s match, but the hero of 92’ World Cup is certainly in for another political battle. Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Kashmir elections will follow the Senate election.
The prime minister’s “smart card” against horse-trading has defused the tension, which the PTI was planning against the government in the coming weeks. It may also help him in the implementation of the National Action Plan against terrorism.
Can these moves also ensure a smooth sailing for the PML-N in the election for the Senate chairman and deputy chairman? Not yet.The writer is the senior analyst, columnist of GEO, The News and Jang