The Al-Quds test

Shahzad Chaudhry

Nikki Haley, US’ PR at the UN said it best: “President Trump announced the Jerusalem decision on Wednesday, and we were expecting [the] heavens to fall. Thursday, Friday, Saturday and now Sunday, hell hasn’t broken loose and the heavens is still up there”. By the time this piece appears it will be another five days down and more likely the heavens will still be in place, stars and all, shining bright, smiling away on the people of the earth below.

In the meanwhile the Arab League, the largest stakeholders, 350 million of them with common ethos, religiosity and sensitivity towards Jerusalem’s centrality in Islam have met and denounced the decision – whatever that means. In the meanwhile Nikki Haley, herself a shining light of America’s immigrant politics, went on to add: “there is far more that unites us to the Arab League than the ‘slight discomfort’ [my words] of bearing with Jerusalem’s declaration as Israel’s uncontested capital.”

Like, you say? Like the $110 billion order for arms and weapons which Saudi Arabia just signed with the US, and others like Qatar signing off on a $100 billion with the US and $80 billion more with Britain, though Britain thinks that the US decision will only make matters worse. And the Saudi crown prince’s plans to open society up to greater international presence, loosening the traditional religious constraints and moving towards a more progressive society. President Trump and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, have his back while he incarcerates at least a hundred princes of influence in Saudi Arabia, reinforcing his uncontestable hold over the Kingdom. That’s a pretty quid pro quo for the prince who is also contesting Iran all across the Middle East in many little self-ignited fires in partial fulfilment of how the Americans would like to defray their own burden. If that means handing Jerusalem over to the Zionists, so be it. It is a small price to keep Saudi Arabia in the Sudairi fold.

There is also the common objective of somehow reining in the increasing Iranian influence in the Middle East. Think Hezbollah, Hamas, Bashar al-Assad, the Iraqi setup and General Qasim Suleimani . While the Sunni Arab Islam is wary of this spread, it is Iran and its affiliates who have kept the Palestinian cause alive. It is not Jordan, not Saudi Arabia but Iran against whom all are arrayed in cahoots with the US and Israel. There was a recent report of intelligence collusion between the Saudis and Israelis on Iran. This is now old news.

The two-state solution has lain by the wayside for all these decades, even after one American president after another has dithered since 1995 from following on a political decision by the Congress to accept Jerusalem as Israel’s real capital. It was another matter that it was a Republican-led House and Senate in 1995 which forced Democrat Bill Clinton’s hand to follow up. But more than being an uncomfortable domestic complexity, Clinton and others had warded off the pressure in the long-term interest of the US to stay relevant to both Israel and the Arabs. Except now when Trump chose the moment to strike, and the heavens didn’t cave.

Imagine: if it were the 1970s, what would have been the consequence? Hell would have broken loose and the heavens would have fallen. The 1970s was when Arafat ruled Palestine even if he were located outside of it. And when he moved, the Islamic world followed. Towards his later years he gave in to the futility of his idealist sublimity and compromised to accept two parallel states. Israel then became a reality with a hope that so will Palestine one day. The two-state option held that hope alive. Despite the time elapsed since 1967, the global acceptance of this option is the closest the world came to a solution. Jerusalem would have been an implicit part, united or divided; it wasn’t touched for its great sensitivity all around. With Trump’s decision, that restraint has been violated. This renders any peace tenuous.

A recent report showed that Jerusalem has been attacked 52 times over the history, captured and recaptured 44 times by various claimants mostly belonging to the Abrahamic religions, and destroyed twice. The Israelis did the last act in 1967 and haven’t relented control of it. It remains the most contested real estate in the history of the world. Rather than grant the Palestinians a homeland under international aegis, Jerusalem is sanctioned as Israel’s capital instead. That effectively kills the two-state option.

Fast forward to today. The OIC, the assembly of the 58 Islamic nations of the world representing some 1.3 billion Muslims has met and spewed some more hot air. The Islamic world stands neatly divided between a more assertive Iran and the contending Sunni Arab Islam. If not already there, the Muslim world is in a slide to its lowest ebb in geostrategic potential as a divided house – nay a feuding house – in tatters, devoid of any levers of influence, economic or political, to defend the Palestinian or the Kashmiri corner.

Briefly review what has befallen the Arab world’s fate. Dependent on oil as the major money spinner, first the prices plunged when the US released its huge oil reserves in the market and then when shale got its footing in the American economy. That was the end of oil as a strategic weapon. Alternate energy has also widely begun to replace fossil fuels. This has regressed most Arab economies and Iran forcing an internal turmoil which has nations such as Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen thoroughly destroyed as others fight off internal challenges triggered by faltering economies and extraneous influences which becomes their first order of business. Who has time for distant agendas?

The recent episode of Saad Hariri seeking to abdicate while on a visit to Saudi Arabia was meant to plunge Lebanon into a political dissemble. That would have weakened Hezbollah’s base inviting easy aggression. In a fractious Muslim world incapable of any coherent, consensual response with least levers of influence at their disposal, Trump chose the moment and scored unabashed. It was his hand and he trumped the Muslim world, forcing upon them the Al-Quds moment. This will only entrench the inherent fissures along sectarian and regional interests. The scene seems set for a showdown between Iran, which will still fight in the name of Al-Quds, and Sunni Arabs who will fight against it in their regional interest. What is needed is a light. The tinderbox is ready.

Nations like Pakistan may find it difficult to remain unaffected. Soon past promises and familial bonds will force its hands too. And it will not be in its interest. One act, one resolve and one Jerusalem will ignite the Muslim world on fire. Round goes to Trump. Well played, anti-Muslim world. Hell does not break loose anymore and the heavens still shine above without a blemish.

Email: shhzdchdhry@yahoo.com