Raqqa’s ruins

The city of Raqqa in Syria has been liberated from the Islamic State. Raqqa was the so-called ‘head of the serpent’ in the fight against IS in the Middle East. US-backed militias, part of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), have taken it back this week, in the process reminding us of the tragic devastation of one of Syria’s greatest cities. Over 1,000 civilians have been killed in Raqqa in the aerial bombardment that accompanied the ground assault alone. The list of casualties in the entire Syrian civil war is much longer. Hundreds of IS fighters have managed to flee Raqqa alive and the organisation will continue to pose a threat to the region. If this is a symbolic victory, then it is tarnished by the devastation of Raqqa. The city has been liberated – but lies in ruins. There is little left of the once thriving city. As far as IS is concerned, it is left with increasingly smaller pockets to operate from. It remains in control of regions in Eastern Syria and its adjoining Iraqi border but its control is weakening.

The trouble is that even if the so-called caliphate is overpowered by military force, the organisation will continue to exist as a terrorist group capable of severe damage to civilian populations in the Middle East and the rest of the world. IS may return to being the guerrilla organisation it was in its early days – and it is unlikely that the leadership had not anticipated losing power. In the last two years, the group has expanded its power and operational capacity beyond the Middle East by orchestrating organised attacks on European soil. Moreover, the larger problem is what is to be done after Raqqa and other IS-controlled territories have been taken back? There is no clear path forward. To begin with, there is no guarantee that the Kurdish-led takeover will not be met with military force from the Syrian armed forces. Apart from the question of who controls Raqqa, the bigger question is: how will Raqqa become a thriving city again? One part of the answer lies in securing funding for its reconstruction. Without such a commitment, the trust deficit is likely to remain and the re-entry of IS will continue to be a possibility.  But there is no future without securing peace and a successful end to the civil war. Some have declared the end of the Islamic Caliphate. That is premature. But even if the IS caliphate has been ended, there are many critical challenges left going forward – and it does not seem anyone has the vision or the commitment to see it through.