Who can win Karachi?

Karachi, after 2017 census, could turn out to be the city of nearly 24 million, if not more. And if all goes well and the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) decides to increase the number of seats, this mega city may witness one of the most exciting political battles in the next general elections in a bid to fill the vacuum, created by the 'Altaf' factor.

At present, its race for 20 National Assembly (NA) and 42 provincial assembly seats, majority of which were won by the Muttahida Qaumi Movement in 2013 elections but, with back-to-back splits, the space for other political parties is now wide open.

Pakistani politics particularly since 1988, by and large, remains ethnic in nature. In the absence of national parties, particularly in the city politics, people voted for an ethic party. Will it take a shift in the election this time, would be a test of all. Chances are there that it may take a shift from three decades of Muhajir politics to Karachi politics.

It will not only be a test of new political entity like Pak-Sarzameen Party (PSP) or a new look Muttahida Qaumi Movement, but also of Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, which though got eight lakh votes but due to poor organisation, lost the initiative after 2013.

Karachi can also return to the days of Jamaat-e-Islami, or the PPP can create history and improve its position from traditional two to three to four to five, if not more.

City's vote bank is divided into Muhajir and non-Urdu speaking votes comprising Pashtun, Punjabi, Sindhi and Baloch. The Urdu-speaking vote can further be divided into the PTI and the PML or the PPP.

Constituencies are also sharply divided on the same lines except in some cases. Thus, the party with a better organisational network may get an edge on the Election Day.

All parties, except for the MQM-London, believe that in the next election, they will get level playing field. They have shifted their focus to Karachi. After back-to-back rallies, demonstrations, protest sit-ins, by the Pakistan People’s Party, Pak-Sarzameen Party, Jamaat-e-Islami and Muttahida Qaumi Movement, MQM-P, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has also announced 'Haqooq-e-Karachi rally’, to be led by Imran Khan.

This space and vacuum has drawn national parties’ attention towards Karachi, which otherwise been ignored and neglected, considering its title of Mini Pakistan. Historically, the mother party of Pakistan, the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) had huge potential here, but the leaguers never organised the party in Karachi and thus lost the initiative after Ayub Khan's presidential election, in which Karachi voted for Fatima Jinnah. The Muslim League lost interest in Karachi after federal capital was shifted to Islamabad.

Karachi than joined Zulfikar Ali Bhutto-led anti-Ayub movement, but Muhajirs, who migrated from India, and majority of them had right wing tendencies, switched from Muslim League to Jamaat-e-Islami and Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan. However, PPP emerged as the third major party and in 1970 elections, got two NA and eight PA seats.

In the 1970s, PPP's main opposition particularly in Karachi and urban Sindh came from the JI and the JUP, but their approach after the Language Bill become ethnic after Muhajir-Sindhi divide. This practically gave birth to politics based on Muhajir's grievances.

After 1977 martial law, General Ziaul Haq exploited this situation in its favour, first he used the JI against Bhutto and after his execution, he exploited Muhajir-Sindhi divide and many believe backed rise of Muhajir party.

From 1977 to 1987, Karachi's local governments remained in the control of JI and PPP, with both winning mayor and deputy mayor elections, respectively.

But, no political force ever got such a hold on Karachi, as the united MQM from 1988 to 2013. Prior to the MQM, the city's mandate remained divided into Jamaat-e-Islami, Jamiat Ulema-e-Pakistan, and Pakistan People’s Party. Similarly, in the local bodies, major share remained with the PPP and the JI. The MQM swept in 1987 local bodies elections and never looked back. But, its election after 1993 had been disputed by the opposition and so was its mandate.

While the MQM politics practically wiped out religious parties, and the PPP maintained its limited space and since PPP itself concentrated on non-Urdu speaking constituencies its scoop confined to Lyari and Malir, though in 1988, it also won one additional seat from Urdu-speaking areas.

Many believe that split in the MQM, for which major responsibility lies on its own style of politics and differences within the party, the space is now open particularly after Karachi operation.

How much impact this split into MQM-London, MQM-Pakistan and Pak-Sarzameen Party (PSP) would have on all three would depend on their work. This split has created opportunities for others.

It will also be the real test of the MQM-Pakistan, which for the first time would seek people's made in the backdrop of the internal crisis after 2013, and August 22nd controversial speech of Altaf Hussain. MQM-P, which recently showed its street strength with a big rally for Karachi's rights, but can they convince their 'confused voters.'

The PSP has been fast in pace with back-to-back political activities. The last one was 19 days sit-in for Mustafa Kamal's 16-points for the rights of Karachi and to empower local governments. Its next show of strength would be on May 16 million march. But, like MQM, they too will be facing a challenge to translate this support into vote.

Except for some personality clash, MQM and PSP have no differences on basic politics or on agenda and program. Any chance of their merger or unity would be the bad news for other parties.

The biggest problem of Karachi, which everyone called’ mini-Pakistan, is the lack of ownership, sense of belonging to country's economic hub, which gives almost 70 per cent, revenue to Islamabad, despite Governor of Sindh, Mohammad Zubair's dissent on this claim.

Altaf Hussain factor can still hurt the splinters, but with the passage of time his style of politics is fading out, but, the issues revolved around the mega city and economic hub of Pakistan, still the 'key' for the voters  and for his critics a huge vacuum .

For the first time in 35 years, there will be no political activity around Nine-Zero, Khursheed Memorial Hall, Jinnah ground. How this will affect the voting trend will have its own significance.

It is not only the real battle for Karachi but also for Karachi's ownership. With better network and who ever show better sense of belonging to city, can win Karachi. .

The writer is a senior columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang

Twitter: @MazharAbbasGEO