The spectacle will go on

Why is the PTI not celebrating its first substantial moral and legal victory since 2013? Why is the PML-N distributing sweets while it has every reason to worry over the verdict of the Panama case?

The court has not removed the Damocles sword hanging over the head of the ruling party. It has not provided the PML-N any respite from the Panama-related accusations of corruption and financial misdeeds. The future course of the case is fraught with serious legal and political implications for the Sharif family and the PML-N.

It is a victory for the PTI if we see the verdict in light of the party’s political strategy. The PTI has employed tactics of guerrilla warfare to politics and, as Henry Kissinger had stated, a guerrilla wins if he does not lose. The PTI has certainly not been defeated in the Panama case. Rather than closing the battle, the verdict has, in fact, opened another round by ordering the formation of a JIT and recommending to the chief justice to form a new bench. The newly constituted bench will oversee the work of the JIT and announce the final verdict in the light of the findings made by the JIT.

But the PTI is upset. Imran Khan’s politics during the last four years has revolved around claiming the scalp of the prime minister on one charge or the other. Let’s not forget that the slogan ‘Go Nawaz Go’ came before the Panama case and continued after the Supreme Court rejected the PTI’s claims of massive election rigging in the 2013 elections.

According to the PTI’s calculation, articulated by Imran Khan on many occasions, the PML-N will be very hard to dislodge during the next elections if the ruling party is allowed to complete its tenure. The case in the Supreme Court is thus an extension of war by other means. In the PTI’s scheme of things, Nawaz Sharif was to be nudged by ‘the real umpire’. The court was not a referee of choice but an option of the last resort.

As the ouster of Nawaz Sharif became the world cup trophy for Imran Khan, the fortunes of the PTI became tied to this target. During the last one year, the Panama case has become the route to achieve this goal. A Norwegian intellectual once commented that one of the major reasons for the world’s problems is over-representation of lawyers in politics because lawyers are trained to deal with the past and not the future. They also try to find legal solutions to a problem that may be more amenable to social or political solutions. Something similar has happened to the PTI, which has tied itself to the past of its rivals rather than the future of the nation.

However, it is the court that has brought Imran Khan so close to the elusive sorcerer’s stone. Despite the farce of victory put up by the PML-N, Nawaz Sharif’s credibility and moral authority has been seriously dented. The words he uttered during the PPP government have come to haunt him.

Many questions are attached to the investigation ordered by the Supreme Court. The JIT may not have great success unless the burden of proof is shifted to the Sharif family – though it can haul members of the Sharif family over the coals and inflict serious political damage on the PML-N. Experts have debated the legality of such a route throughout the proceedings of the case. Since the Sharif family has told a story, it is natural that they should be required to demonstrate that is true.

As the opposition has mentioned, heads of the three of the five institutions tasked to carry out investigation – namely the SECP, NAB, FIA and SBP – are appointed by the PM. The dissenting judges have already raised questions about the professional competence of NAB and FIA and the impartiality of their heads. However, the names of the members of the investigation team will be approved by the Supreme Court and the court will oversee their work.

The team will also include intelligence professionals from both MI and ISI. Asking these institutions to investigate the cases related to corruption is an unfortunate trend. It diverts their attention, energy and resources to tasks for which they are not trained; it blurs the line between the civilian and military domains, creating risks for the civilian setup; it also undermines the national institutions mandated to ensure transparency in the government.

It should be a warning signal for the political parties and political leaders and a call to reform the institutions of accountability. However, this goal does not figure very high on the agenda of any political party. In the narrative of the PTI, transparency is tied to the person of Imran Khan and not to any institution.

While declaring victory, the PTI, as well as other opposition parties, have rejected the formation of the JIT. The party has praised the integrity of the two judges who wrote dissenting notes declaring that the prime minister had ceased to be Sadiq and Ameen. This line of argument is also an indirect criticism of those judges who were not convinced by the arguments and materials presented by the petitioners and wanted further probe.

Imran Khan wants to take the PTI back to the streets in order to force the prime minister to resign. He has announced his intention to hold a rally in the federal capital this week to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Unfortunately, organising political protests in the South Asian summer is like invading Russia in the winter. The Pakistani summer is brutal, more so for the middle-class followers of Imran Khan used to air conditioners. Since the PTI’s first dharna, the Punjab police has honed its skills of dealing with political protests. In October last year, the PTI’s followers failed to prove their mettle while facing the police crackdown that resulted in a total collapse of the PTI’s plans to “occupy Islamabad”.

An early closure of Panama case suits the PML-N because it will get time to do the damage control by changing the subject and focusing on patronage politics during the last year of its government. However, short of dislodging the PM, it suits the opposition to drag the case as close to the elections as possible. The PPP has asked the PTI to file a review petition in the apex court to demand a judicial commission instead of the JIT to further probe into the Panama leaks case.

It is not going to be a pleasant experience for Nawaz Sharif. He will stay as a diminished figure, legally vulnerable and constantly under attack from the opposition. Musharraf with all his might was not able to achieve the level of scrutiny of a jailed political leader that the nascent democracy has been able to achieve of a sitting prime minister. This should be an occasion for the PTI to correct its anti-democracy narrative and focus on reforms.

Whatever course the case takes on the Constitution Avenue, it will soon be in the most powerful court of the nation – the court of the people of Pakistan. It is the people who hired Nawaz Sharif in 2013 and they are the ones who can fire him in 2018.

The writer is an anthropologist and development professional.

Email: zaighamkhan@yahoo.com

Twitter: @zaighamkhan