Renegotiating water

It is likely that water, not terrorism, will spark the next major conflict between Pakistan and India. Both countries already cannot meet their water needs and that problem will only be exacerbated by global climate change. At a time when both countries should be trying to negotiate the fair use of water from the Indus River and its Western tributaries, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been sabre-rattling and threatening to block off Pakistan’s access to water. Under the Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan is supposed to have unrestricted use of the three western rivers of the Indus. But India tried to change the facts on the ground by building the Kishanganga Dam on River Jhelum. The matter ended up at the International Court of Arbitration at The Hague and India was allowed to continue constructing the dam, but was only allowed to divert a minimal amount of water and had to release half of that to Pakistan. Now, India is doing the same thing with the Ratle Dam. Pakistan once again believes this will violate the Indus Waters Treaty and has asked the World Bank to from a Court of Arbitration to rule on the matter. But this time the World Bank seems to be tilting towards India. It wants Pakistan and India to resolve the issue bilaterally, a course of action that is a waste of time when Modi is in no mood for compromise. These delays may once again give India the opportunity to complete the dam – which is scheduled to be operational by 2018 – and present it is a fait accompli.

Even if we end up at the International Court of Arbitration and it issues the same ruling as it did with the Kishanganga Dam, India will still be able to use water as a weapon against Pakistan. India is supposed to release half the water from the dam to Pakistan but there is no specification on when it has to do so. It could end up releasing the water when we don’t need it, or even worse, when there are floods. Pakistan should be looking for a more long-term solution. This may require renegotiating the Indus Waters Treaty to take into account the likelihood of even greater water scarcity in the future. That will require the involvement of the international community since India is in no mood to compromise on anything with Pakistan. Until that time, we will have to become smarter about our use of water. The excessive reliance on water-guzzling tube wells has left many parts of the country dry and water preservation doesn’t seem to be on the government’s agenda. We need to recognise that water may be the greatest threat Pakistan faces today and without it we have no hope for survival.