Games afoot

The PTI’s planned shutdown of Islamabad on November 2 is beginning to take the same shape as its last major protest in the capital two years ago. The argument that the 2013 election had been rigged was the apparent moving force behind the dharna which effectively paralysed Islamabad for days. This time the slogan being raised is that of corruption, with the Panama leaks and the alleged involvement of the prime minister in the affair acting as the apparent trigger point for Imran Khan’s latest string of tirades and his warning that Nawaz Sharif will be forced to step down. The Supreme Court is due to hear the case on the Panama petitions on November 1, but of course it must act within legal parameters and cannot simply remove the PM as Imran craves. This can, under Pakistan’s constitution, only be carried out by parliament through a vote of no confidence. Imran has already bypassed this option by refusing to play any part in parliamentary politics while also doing all he can to discredit the judiciary in the past two years. Sheikh Rashid is around whenever a democratic government has to be threatened, and he is working hard to bring on board others who prefer the politics of conspiracy acted out on the streets to that of the ballot box which they despise. It was Rashid who acted as an intermediary between the PTI and Tahirul Qadri’s Pakistan Awami Tehreek, convincing the Canadian cleric to once again show inclination to join Imran Khan. Whether he is the only factor behind this change in mood has been a matter of speculation like the old London plan.

Both Imran and Qadri enjoy being in the limelight and had fallen out after the 2014 dharna but seem to be coming together again – for now. Sheikh Rashid is also trying to convince Maulana Samiul Haq and other members of religious parties from the Difa-e-Pakistan Council to join the protests. Samiul Haq – whose giant madressah was allocated Rs300 million in the 2016-17 budget by the PTI government in KP – heads the Council which includes somewhat unsavoury forces including the Jamaatud Dawa and Ahle Sunnat wal Jamaat. The Shuhada Foundation, which speaks for the Lal Masjid, has indicated that it may join Imran. As we saw in 2007, those associated with the madaris run by the Lal Masjid are capable of creating a severe disturbance acting to cripple the capital. These ‘religious’ forces certainly can bring the numbers to ensure an Islamabad shutdown, but their dubious pasts and extremist views will serve only to raise further worries about the true intentions of the participants. Imran himself has been getting even more extreme in his rhetoric, going so far as to denounce Nawaz Sharif as a security threat. He is trying to paint the PML-N government as a puppet of the Indians. Imran’s protest then may go beyond allegations of corruption and harm whatever possibility is there for a sane debate over and rethinking of ‘national security’ in the country. All this is happening at a time when we mourn our dead, when the state says it is curbing extremism and fighting terrorism and when it faces tension and aggression on the eastern front. The forces Imran is flirting with have never been known to bring good tidings and there is no reason to assume that violent frenzy is not what is being aimed at. The memories of the Red Zone being breached and the PTV headquarters being raided are still fresh. No matter how Imran Khan sees his future and his standing, it is becoming difficult to see him a genuinely political figure and a man of wisdom. He is certainly not a man who leads ‘progressive’ forces even within the status quo. Other ‘democratically’ elected parties including the PPP seem willing to simply watch and wait. Perhaps they will decide later which side to align themselves with. The PPP for now has distanced itself from the shutdown saying it will take no part in it, while keeping the option of taking to the streets up its sleeve. The government, which is perceived to have done little to help its own cause, can rely on the PPP to resist indulging in excesses and try negotiations first. The rest on this front is yet to unfold. The end game may play itself out both in the streets of Islamabad and the corridors of power.