Searching for sanity in uncertain times

News analysis

In his maiden public rally at Kozhikode after the bloody Uri encounter, Prime Minister Modi did not order for punitive military retaliation of the sort that was being vociferously demanded by a predominantly war-mongering Indian media.

Has the post-Uri backlash subsided or will the traditional vengeance find ‘other means’ beyond just a diplomatic drive to isolate Pakistan? Both our suspicion and Hindutva’s supreme leader’s new mantra seem simultaneously mindboggling and revealing. Calling for strategic restraint, rather than fulfilling his erstwhile resolve to respond to Pakistan “in its own language”, Mr Modi has surprisingly attempted to change the Indian narrative towards Pakistan. Turning Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s rhetoric of “1000-years of war with Hindus(tan)” on its head, the Hindu nationalist leader, who was expected to spit fire, instead borrowed the typical peace-nicks’ phrases to throw a challenge of competing in humanitarian progress and economic hegemony.

He substituted the vengeance-seeking expectation of his audience with India’s economic superiority by saying that “India is known for software exporting country and Pakistan is known for terrorism exporting country”. At the height of war-mongering, which makes the politicians succumb to the rhetoric of revenge, Mr Modi all but took the steam out of the prophets of annihilation and retribution. He had, however, some lollypops to offer to the likes of the hate-mongering Arnab Goswami of India. According to Modi, in 17 operations against abortive terrorist attempts that the Indian forces foiled, “110 terrorists were eliminated” (if the casualties of 107 unarmed civilians are not being included) and he pledged that India will not forget the “deaths of its 18 soldiers” — perhaps implying that he might settle scores at the time, place and mode of his choosing.

Pointing out Pakistan’s economic vulnerabilities and ethno-regional faultlines, Mr Modi drew a clear line between the rulers and the ruled on this side of the border. However, he conveniently forgot to add how India also suffers from multiple maladies of astronomical proportions while eulogizing India’s economic advancement over Pakistan’s obvious economic vulnerabilities.

Sanity, as it appears, informed the mutually destructive military calculations, and the political leadership, despite being bogged down by the intractable Kashmir imbroglio, had to take a more intelligent and subliminal course.

On the diplomatic level, India will play on the widespread perception that Pakistan tends to beat about the bush when it comes to terrorism to keep Pakistan as the punching bag for all its detractors, while using “cross-border terrorism” to cover-up its extreme repression in the Kashmir valley. This should not allow the Pakistani strategists the luxury of self-deception about their ‘invincibility’ and must not encourage them to keep small mischiefs as a strategic advantage.

However, one must not ignore the very intriguing and subversive dark horse of Indian security establishment, which has successfully out-manoeuvred Pakistan’s old hands at the treacherous games of Afghan anarchy. These are not the high profile games of Cold-Start and Pakistan’s response of assured deterrence; these are the easy but killing ways of subliminal warfare that exploit domestic cleavages to inflict high social costs and instigate a cyclical reaction and counter-action in the opposite camp that serves the purpose of the perpetrators. Thus goes the absurd logic of proxy wars that help proliferate anarchic, extremist forces or non-state actors who are always ready to shift sides and at a cheap price. Considering the essentially cheap fodder of dirty games, ‘good’ is misplaced and who would know better than us what brought Pakistan to such a messy pass.

Indeed, Pakistan has shown the required resolve and preparedness for various military scenarios. What is, however, extremely worrying is that we are yet not ready to revisit some of the convoluted facets of our skewed security paradigm. Before Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s speech at the UNGA, some noted diplomacy and security pundits had politely cautioned against Pakistan’s possible isolation and had recommended revisiting our Afghan Taliban policy. They had warned against letting the cause of human rights for the Kashmiris be muddled with terrorism, which would damage the Kashmiris peaceful struggle and help India divert attention from the atrocities being committed in the Indian-administered Kashmir. Mr Sartaj Aziz has offered an international probe into the Uri episode quite late. It should have been proposed by the PM at the UN. Perhaps too many cooks continue to spoil the broth.

It’s time that we rethought our security and strategic paradigms and recalibrated our foreign policy to not get over-burdened with excessive security agendas and be ready to get rid of the baggage that puts us in the wrong company and on the wrong foot. The diffusing of tension, or its postponement, creates an opportunity to find ways to pre-empt New Delhi’s drive to isolate Pakistan and win back our legitimate space as a consistent fighter against terrorism without any exception.

Similarly, the prime minister must not let the SAARC Summit be derailed and find ways to revive the dialogue process with both India and Afghanistan. As the threat of war seems to have receded, the prime minister must take parliament into confidence about his much-needed course for regional amity, instead of enmity with everybody and on all sides. Let parliament set the direction and let others follow, as we move towards yet another normal change of guards in a democracy in transition.