Pakistan’s defining moment

As Narendra Modi’s extremist ideology and the fanaticism of India’s right-wing Hindutva extremists fuel aggression, Pakistan must not mirror their divisive attitudes but respond with vision, wisdom and maturity.

A fragile ceasefire, brokered by US-led mediation, holds but has the risk of renewed conflict. Across Pakistan, banners salute our armed forces, and the nation stands united behind Munir, echoing Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah’s call: “We are now all Pakistanis… proud to be known as Pakistanis and nothing else.”

This unity is our strength, yet it must not obscure harsh realities. Buoyed by tactical successes, some Pakistanis believe the clash has shifted South Asia’s power balance – a dangerous illusion that demands dispelling. India’s vast resources dwarf ours, and their capacity for military escalation requires preparation rooted not in bravado but in strategic resolve. Guided by Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah’s vision and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s strategic foresight, Pakistan’s policymakers must seize this moment to forge a Pakistan defined by economic vitality, diplomatic acumen and moral courage.

The notion of a shifted power balance arises from Pakistan’s formidable performance under the army chief’s command. Our J-10C jets, armed with advanced PL-15 missiles and Bayraktar TB2 drones outmanoeuvred India’s outdated air defences, exposing vulnerabilities in their ageing MiG-21 fleet and disjointed coordination. The reported downing of a Rafale, a first in combat, marks a significant public setback for India’s air force. Yet, our air defences do have vulnerabilities that demand urgent upgrades. These tactical triumphs do not bridge the profound asymmetry. India’s defence budget, at $86 billion in 2024, dwarfs Pakistan’s $10 billion by nearly ninefold, and their nearly $4 trillion economy overshadows our $375 billion. Even with an 18 per cent increase in our defence spending for 2025-26, our budget will reach only $11.88 billion – a mere fraction of India’s

India could double its military expenditure to $172 billion, a feat unattainable for our debt-burdened economy, constrained by a $7 billion IMF loan. Their 1.46 million active troops and superior arsenals rank them fourth globally, while Pakistan, with 654,000 personnel, stands at twelfth. History highlights this disparity: India’s forces retaliated for 1965’s Operation Gibraltar and dismembered our east in 1971. The 2019 Balakot strike, though initially unopposed, saw Pakistan down a MiG-21 and capture its pilot, reflecting a pattern of tactical resilience overshadowed by strategic imbalance, mirrored in 2025.

Anticipating India’s long-term response is paramount. Their economic might and global partnerships enable a sustained military buildup, potentially escalating tensions beyond our capacity to counter militarily. The ceasefire, facilitated by US and Saudi mediation, highlights the world’s stake in de-escalation, but India’s leadership, driven by Hindutva-fuelled nationalism, may exploit their resource advantage. Modi’s warnings of strong retaliation signal an aggressive posture unlikely to soften soon. Pakistan cannot afford to mirror this escalation. Instead, we must fortify our strategic autonomy through economic resilience and diplomatic engagement, ensuring our sovereignty rests on a robust economy and global standing.

Donald Trump’s role in brokering the ceasefire reflects personal ambition and geopolitical strategy. His administration, eager to project decisive leadership, saw the India-Pakistan clash as an opportunity for a high-profile diplomatic win, contrasting with stalled efforts in other global conflicts. Trump’s swift announcement of the ceasefire and promises to enhance trade with both nations suggest a bid to bolster his image as a global dealmaker. His focus on Occupied Kashmir, evident in past mediation offers, aligns with US interests in countering China’s growing influence in South Asia, particularly as Pakistan’s J-10C jets showcased Beijing’s arms prowess.

By mediating, Trump likely sought to strengthen economic ties with India while keeping Pakistan engaged to maintain regional leverage. Yet, his push for broader Kashmir talks, welcomed by Pakistan but viewed sceptically elsewhere, risks unsettling the fragile truce by oversimplifying a deeply complex dispute. Pakistan must navigate this cautiously, capitalising on US and Saudi support while guarding against reliance on inconsistent American priorities.

Our security state, with 170 nuclear warheads, remains a vital shield, deterring escalation as it did in 1999’s Kargil crisis and 2025’s standoff. Bhutto’s defiant pledge, “We will eat grass, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own”, delivered this deterrence, forcing India’s caution despite their 172 warheads. Yet, this overshadows education and healthcare, straining our fragile economy. Vietnam’s 1975 triumph over America, won at the cost of two million lives, left it economically shattered, a warning for Pakistan. Policymakers must balance defence with development, ensuring our state serves our future, not starves it.

The true battleground is economic, where sovereignty is forged. Bhutto saw it clearly: “Economic independence is the real basis of sovereignty; without it, political freedom is a facade.” Pakistan’s policymakers can draw inspiration from MBS, whose Vision 2030 has diversified Saudi Arabia’s economy through technology, tourism, and global partnerships. Like MBS, we can champion bold reforms: streamline governance to attract investment, expand trade through regional partnerships, and invest in education and technology to empower our youth. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor offers a lifeline for infrastructure, innovation, and connectivity, positioning Pakistan as a trade hub that links Central Asia to the Middle East. This economic strength, mirroring Saudi Arabia’s strategic pivot, will sustain our defences and deter conflict through interdependence.

Our past entanglement with militant groups is a self-inflicted wound that demands urgent healing. India’s strikes, as seen in 2008, 2019, and now 2025, target outfits like Lashkar-e-Taiba, painting Pakistan as the instigator in global eyes. Though we reject claims of state sponsorship, persistent perceptions have fuelled India’s aggression and isolated us. On April 24, 2025, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif admitted to Sky News’ Yalda Hakim, “We have been doing this dirty work for the United States for about three decades… and the West, including Britain. That was a mistake, and we suffered for that.” Similarly, on May 1, 2025, Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari told Hakim, “I don’t think it’s a secret that Pakistan has a past… We have gone through wave after wave of extremism.”

Vietnam’s 1979 blunder – supporting Cambodian rebels – invited China’s invasion, thrusting Hanoi into diplomatic and economic isolation. Our policymakers must act decisively to sever any such ties, not to placate India, but to reclaim Pakistan’s honour and secure its rightful place among nations.

India’s post-clash rhetoric – marked by Modi’s aggressive warnings and Hindutva-driven fanaticism – tempts us to match their tone. Yet, gestures of magnanimity risk falling flat against an unyielding adversary. Bhutto’s wisdom guides us: “Pakistan’s survival depends on a delicate balance of diplomacy in a world of competing powers.” The 2003–2008 peace process, fostering trade and ceasefires, proved dialogue’s potential, but India’s rejection of our 2019 gesture – returning their captured pilot – reveals their hubris.

Instead of waiting for reciprocity, we must act with resolve: strengthen our economy to stand tall, deepen alliances with China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the EU, and lead with moral clarity by addressing militancy. The US-brokered ceasefire, bolstered by Saudi Arabia’s mediation, shows diplomacy’s value, and we must leverage it to the fullest. Vietnam’s Asean integration and South Korea’s global engagement show the path: a Pakistan that thrives through economic strength and alliances, not just military defiance.

For policymakers, the 2025 clash is a call to transcend survival and embrace destiny. Our armed forces defend our honour; our policies must secure our future. The world, which tempered this crisis, awaits a Pakistan that leads with vision. India’s strength is no excuse for aggression – true greatness lies in peace.

Pakistanis have endured 1947’s birth pangs, 1965’s fire, and 1971’s scars, but they must pursue the dream of unity, strength and dignity. Let us build our country with economic resilience, diplomatic wisdom and unwavering commitment.

The writer is former head of Citigroup’s emerging markets investments and author of ‘The Gathering Storm’.