20% drop in Chenab’s water if India expands Ranbir canal: expert

ISLAMABAD: The proposed expansion in the Ranbir canal by India will plummet Pakistan’s water supply from the Chenab by nearly 20pc, said water expert Engineer Arshad H Abbasi here on Monday.

Abbasi is a water expert who remained part of Track-II diplomacy with India on water issues In quantifiable terms, this translates to a loss exceeding five million acre-feet (MAF) of water annually—water valued at an estimated $10 billion on the global market. On May 16th, five Reuters journalists revealed a grim and deeply troubling report saying that India is weighing to curtail Pakistan’s water supply through an expansion of Ranbir Canal on River Chenab. The project plans to double its length from 60 kilometers to a staggering 120 kilometers.

Abbasi explains that the average flow in the Chenab River is approximately 28,000 cusecs. The diversion could plummet the water supply by nearly 20pc. In quantifiable terms, this translates to a loss exceeding 5 million acre-feet (MAF) of water annually—water valued at an estimated $10 billion on the global market. This would be a catastrophic blow to Punjab, the agricultural heart of the nation.

“While India has long utilized the Ranbir Canal, a 19th-century irrigation channel predating the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), the proposed project expansion raises questions about compliance with the Indus Waters Treaty. Annexure C of the IWT explicitly governs India’s agricultural use of water from western rivers like the Chenab, setting strict caps on withdrawals.”

The question if water withdrawals from the Chenab adhere to the exact quantities as defined in the Indus Waters Treaty remains known only to Pakistan’s Ministry of Water Resources and the Indus Waters Commissioner. The practical enforcement and monitoring are fraught with ambiguity.

Under Article VI of the treaty, both India and Pakistan are obligated to regularly exchange river and canal data. The data is typically provided by India in hard copy format, either via fax or postal services, raising serious questions about its accuracy and transparency. The treaty allowed Pakistan to inspect the watersheds of the Jhelum, Indus, and Chenab rivers twice, or thrice annually. But the suspension of the treaty and the current geopolitical tensions have disrupted these inspections, leaving many critical questions unanswered.

The treaty explicitly, the press note says, allows for a maximum withdrawal of 1,000 cusecs from April 15 to October 14, and 350 cusecs from October 15 to April 14. If India is indeed operating the Ranbir Canal at its fullest capacity, this would constitute a clear violation of the treaty, with significant repercussions for downstream flows into Pakistan.

Abbasi says in 2008, he submitted a proposal to the Ministry of Water Resources, advocating for the installation of a real-time telemetry system on the three western rivers downstream of the Baglihar Dam which was never implemented. In contrast, Abbasi points out, India and China have implemented a real-time river flow data-sharing system on the Brahmaputra River and Sutlej River.

Abbasi says the Ranbir and Pratap Canals Project, with a budget of USD 41 million and USD 18 million (as per 2008-09 estimates), were conceived in 2003 and were projected to be completed in 14 and 12 years respectively. However they remained on the back burner till now when New Delhi seems hell bent to weaponise water.