Pakistan’s Rafale takedown: A crippling blow to India’s air power, strategic superiority

ISLAMABAD: The downing of three Indian Rafale fighter jets by Pakistan has dealt a severe blow to New Delhi’s security apparatus, with strategic, psychological and diplomatic repercussions.

According to government sources, the successful engagement marks a major milestone for Pakistan’s air force and exposes serious vulnerabilities in India’s air defence readiness and rules of engagement.

During Tuesday night’s exchange, five Indian fighter jets — including three state-of-the-art Rafales — were reportedly shot down by the Pakistan Air Force (PAF).

The fallout was immediate. Shares of Dassault Aviation, the French manufacturer of Rafale jets, dipped sharply, while the stock of Chengdu Aircraft Corporation — the Chinese maker of the JF-17 Thunder and J-10C jets used by the PAF — surged in response. Rafale fighter jets are considered among the most advanced multi-role combat aircraft in the world. Built by the French company Dassault Aviation, they are designed for deep strike missions, air superiority, reconnaissance, and nuclear deterrence.

India signed around $9 billion deal in 2016 to purchase 36 Rafales, with deliveries completed in 2022. India is reported to have paid around $240 million per jet, including support and customisation for Indian needs.

Following the Tuesday night developments, Pakistan Air Force has become the first to have shot down Rafale. With the arrival of Rafale, India has been boosting that it has the superiority in air power not only against Pakistan but also against China. While Pakistan was confident that it could outsmart India in case of any misadventure, there were also a few voices within India who had warned Modi that India cannot defeat Pakistan in a war. Only a few days back, The News quoted Indian defence and security analyst Pravin Sawhney, a former officer in the Indian Army. Despite India’s heated rhetoric, Sawhney had said that Pakistan now has a distinct military edge over India.

Besides discussing how Pakistan Army is better than India, he specifically stated, “Since the Indian Air Force’s operational gaps got exposed on 27 February 2019 during Pakistan Air Force’s operation Swift Retort, both PAF and Pakistan Army are expected to perform well in electronic warfare, and electro-spectrum management.”

He added that Pakistan has built formidable air defences, and is likely to use Chinese-built drones as its second air power. Unlike Indian military, the Pakistan military platforms with most equipment of Chinese origin would have excellent operational sustenance to maintain long periods of intense rates of air and ground firepower. “The Centre of Artificial Intelligence and Computing (CENTAIC) set up under the PAF in August 2020 with Chinese support would throw up operational surprises,” Sawhney said. He also admitted that the PAF’s better pilot to aircraft ratio would work to Pakistan’s advantage. Unless the Indian Air Force integrates cyber and electronic warfare in its attack profile, and is fully networked, it stands little chance in a war, he said.