Pakistan poised to respond forcefully to misadventure: senior defence source

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s military anticipates the possibility of a misadventure by India but is prepared to respond with force “a notch above,” according to a senior defence source.

Speaking to The News on condition of anonymity, the source -- who holds a key position -- assured that any Indian aggression would be met with a “very strong response.” The source said the armed forces are on a high alert and fully prepared to counter any cross-border challenge.

This level of preparedness has instilled confidence among the prime minister, cabinet members, and politicians across the political spectrum and which shows Pakistan’s military is fully capable of giving a befitting response to war-mongering India.

Interestingly, cautionary voices have emerged within India as well. Some analysts and commentators are urging the Modi government and its aggressive media to avoid repeating what they call the mistakes of 2019.

One such voice is Indian defence and security analyst Pravin Sawhney, a former officer in the Indian Army. Despite India’s heated rhetoric, Sawhney does not foresee a full-scale war between the two nuclear neighbours. In fact, he has previously argued that Pakistan now has a distinct military edge over India.

In an earlier article published in an Indian defence magazine, Sawhney wrote, “Today, Pakistan military will outmatch Indian military in a war by a convincingly huge margin. The main reason for this is the mindless abrogation of Article 370 and the creation of two separate Union Territories from the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir.”

In his view, “The six-lakh Pakistan Army has been able to match the 13-lakh Indian Army at operational level for two reasons. One, the creation of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) for internal and external intelligence in 1948 was a masterstroke…. And two, Pakistan has much stronger strategic level which directly impacts the operational level of war.”

He highlighted, “Unlike in the case of India, the Pakistan Army controls its nation’s nuclear and security policy and would brook no interference. Moreover, Pakistan Army chief is in command of all field formations and the other two services chiefs listen to him. In India, while the army chief too is in command of all field formations, he is one amongst the three chiefs, and is susceptible to political and bureaucratic interference. Under the Constitution, the civilian defence secretary is responsible for the defence of India. Worse, now the three services’ chiefs are principal staff officers to the four-star Chief of Defence Staff. Given this, quicker decision making by the Pakistan military adds to its advantage at the operational level.”

He believes that the dramatic changes in Indian held Jammu and Kashmir on August 5, 2019 have weakened the Indian military no end. He also talked about the Pakistan military’s advantages like real time intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance, and Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT for missiles accuracy) by Beidou satellites system. “China’s humongous cyber war capabilities could inordinately delay Indian Army’s mobilisation plans, and the Air Traffic Control towers could go haywire impacting on IAF’s fighters’ performance,” he wrote. “Moreover, since the Indian Air Force’s operational gaps got exposed on 27 February 2019 during Pakistan Air Force’s operation Swift Retort, both PAF and Pakistan Army are expected to perform well in electronic warfare, and electro-spectrum management,” he said, adding that Pakistan has built formidable air defences, and is likely to use Chinese-built drones as its second air power. Unlike Indian military, the Pakistan military platforms with most equipment of Chinese origin would have excellent operational sustenance to maintain long periods of intense rates of air and ground firepower. “The Centre of Artificial Intelligence and Computing (CENTAIC) set up under the PAF in August 2020 with Chinese support would throw up operational surprises,” Sawhney said. He also admitted that the PAF’s better pilot to aircraft ratio would work to Pakistan’s advantage. Unless the Indian Air Force integrates cyber and electronic warfare in its attack profile, and is fully networked, it stands little chance in war, he said.