Silence, succession, strategy

When Nawaz Sharif took over the presidency of the PML-N from his younger brother, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, it sparked hope for the party’s revival and reactivation. However, ten months have passed without any significant political activity. No public gatherings have been organised, nor has a single closed-door consultative meeting been convened. Even now, there seems to be no concrete planning to energise the party or engage in active politics.

Why is Nawaz Sharif, the most experienced politician in South Asia, behaving like this? A three-time prime minister and a dominant figure in Pakistan’s politics for over three decades, Nawaz Sharif is celebrated for liberalising the economy, developing infrastructure like motorways, and attempting to build peace with India.

Despite his legacy, Sharif today seems a shadow of his former self. He has avoided public appearances, refrained from press engagements, and hasn’t granted a single interview since his return to Pakistan. His interactions with the federal and Punjab cabinets have been non-existent, leaving the PML-N – once Punjab’s most organised and vibrant party – rudderless and leaderless, with no narrative or future roadmap.

Many theories attempt to explain Nawaz Sharif’s isolation. Some attribute it to his deteriorating health, while others believe his wife’s passing left him deeply affected. Another perspective points to his inability to reconcile with the disappointing results of the February 8 elections and his reservations about certain decisions by the establishment before those elections, which led to the PML-N’s controversial victory. These factors reportedly compelled him to decline the prime ministership for a historic fourth term.

Yet, those familiar with Sharif’s political acumen strongly reject the notion that he is disillusioned or defeated. They argue that his silence is a calculated strategy, allowing him to avoid prematurely committing to any narrative or alienating rivals like the PTI or the establishment. They describe him as cautious, sagacious, and at times, enigmatic. Despite his apparent disengagement, Nawaz Sharif reportedly wields tight control over party affairs, with key decisions – political or administrative – requiring his approval.

This centralised authority has caused friction. For example, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s plans to expand the federal cabinet for political fortification faced resistance from the power centre at Jati Umra. While the brothers maintain a close personal bond, coordination between the party and the government appears almost nonexistent.

If the above analysis holds, Nawaz Sharif likely has a concealed agenda. Known for his penchant for keeping plans to himself, his current silence suggests he is contemplating a monumental decision – one that could reshape the party and his family dynamics. This decision revolves around his political successor, a matter of personal and familial significance.

Historically, Nawaz has been generous in accommodating Shehbaz Sharif, granting him positions like Punjab chief ministership and party presidency. For years, Nawaz openly affirmed that Hamza Shehbaz would be his political heir, sidelining his own sons, Hussain and Hassan, from politics – reportedly under the influence of his late wife, Kulsoom Nawaz.

Kulsoom also played a pivotal role in grooming Maryam Nawaz, subtly paving the way for her to replace Hamza. Shehbaz and Hamza’s miscalculated neutrality during the challenging periods of General Raheel Sharif and early General Qamar Javed Bajwa eras further widened the gap. It was during these turbulent times that Nawaz began relying on Maryam, thrusting her into the political spotlight. Although Shehbaz later mended ties, Hamza couldn’t regain his earlier prominence, with Maryam now firmly occupying the central role.

Nawaz Sharif’s current hesitation likely stems from the enormity of announcing Maryam as his successor. Such a decision risks straining his lifelong bond with Shehbaz and potentially creating rifts within the party. For Shehbaz’s family, this move might feel like the 'unkindest cut of all'. Maryam, however, appears well aware of her father’s plans, evident from her growing confidence and projection of prime ministerial authority – something that hasn’t gone unnoticed by the federal government.

The timing of Nawaz’s announcement will be crucial. If handled poorly, it could lead to a fracture within the family or divisions in the party. Alternatively, Shehbaz’s family might choose to prioritise unity over ambitions, continuing to play second fiddle under Maryam’s leadership.

By assuming the party presidency, Nawaz Sharif may be laying the groundwork for a smooth and secure transition of power, ensuring his legacy remains intact while passing the baton to the next generation.

The writer is the editor of Jang in Lahore, an anchor, and the executive director at Geo TV.